Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Albany, NY

339 
WWUS51 KALY 021921
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTC005-MAC003-NYC021-027-021945-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140702T1945Z/
LITCHFIELD CT-BERKSHIRE MA-DUTCHESS NY-COLUMBIA NY-
321 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL COLUMBIA...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DUTCHESS...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON TO OTIS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
TORRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PERU...WEST NEW BOSTON...NEW BOSTON AND FREE QUARTER BY 325 PM
  EDT...
  ROOSTERVILLE...NORTH COLEBROOK AND MCCLAVEVILLE BY 330 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN THE TOWN OF 
EGREMONT. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

&&

LAT...LON 4225 7355 4229 7342 4235 7336 4244 7334
      4251 7297 4239 7300 4238 7302 4238 7306
      4233 7306 4231 7299 4216 7302 4214 7304
      4214 7307 4204 7305 4204 7300 4200 7301
      4200 7356 4212 7354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 248DEG 38KT 4241 7307 4222 7304
          4199 7323

$$

JPV/IRL

091 
WWUS51 KALY 021945
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTC005-MAC003-NYC021-027-021955-
/O.EXP.KALY.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140702T1945Z/
LITCHFIELD CT-BERKSHIRE MA-DUTCHESS NY-COLUMBIA NY-
345 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DUTCHESS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. 
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 
HOUR.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

LAT...LON 4225 7355 4229 7342 4235 7336 4244 7334
      4251 7297 4239 7300 4238 7302 4238 7306
      4233 7306 4231 7299 4216 7302 4214 7304
      4214 7307 4204 7305 4204 7300 4200 7301
      4200 7356 4212 7354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 248DEG 38KT 4241 7306 4222 7303
          4199 7322

$$

JPV/IRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
218 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOT AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORRMS.  A
COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF ERN NY EXCLUDING NRN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND ALL OF WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 04Z/THU...

AS OF 218 PM EDT...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO TRAIN WITH THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING INCREASING WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2.0" AND SFC DEWPTS
IN THE U60 TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN SOME CASES. CONVECTION IS
RIDING ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE...AND GOOD UPPER JET
DYNAMICS NEAR THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80-90 KT JET STREAK.
FFA ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA...EXCEPT THE SRN
DACKS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 1500-3500+ J/KG OVER THE REGION. THE
GREATER AMOUNTS ARE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE RAMPING UP TO 35-50 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUES TO STEEPEN TO 6.5-7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH. WARM SEASON CSTAR WORK HAS SHOWN THE POTENTIAL INCREASES
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH A PREFRONTAL AND/OR LEE TROUGH IN THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST IN THE RIGHT PRECONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL CASE. DEEP ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS...AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO
BE 10 KTS OR LESS. PWATS ARE RUNNING 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT IF RAINFALL
RATES APPROACH 1 -2+ INCHES IN A HOUR ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING
CONVECTION. WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANY ISOLD-SCT FLASH FLOODING. TA
1600 UTC SPECIAL KALY SOUNDING WAS DONE.

THE BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE COMBINING WITH A STRONG JULY
SUN WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE M80S ACROSS MOST OF HIGHER
RRAIN...AND AROUND 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE STILL WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE. WITH TIME...OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND SO
WILL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS 65 TO AROUND
70 WITH A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PRESS INTO THE
AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN HIGHER PWATS PERHAPS PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MIGHT HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT (PRE).

PER CSTAR STUDIES...IT LOOKS AS SOME OF THE KEY INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A PRE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH MAX WINDS LIKELY OVER
100KTS (AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC CURVED) TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE MAXIMUM JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY MIDDAY THURSDAY...ONLY
SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
POOL ALONG IT.

AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL BY LATE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
LOWER TOMORROW DUE TO LOWER CAPE VALUES (CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG) AND
PERHAPS A LOT MORE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WE WENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/LOWER MET GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH...CLOSE TO 70...EXCEPT 60S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST...LAST TO EXIT NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MIGHT STILL BE PROCESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EVEN
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...SIGNALS ARE GOOD THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. THIS ASSUMES THE TROPICAL ARTHUR STORM TURNS MORE TO THE EAST
WELL OFF SHORE...INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND INSURING THAT THE COLD
FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS OUR ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS...MAINLY
EARLY.

DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR CANADA WILL INFILTRATE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE HELD TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S.

THE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS WILL REALLY BE FELT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
A CLEARING SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY.

FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S.  MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS WELL OVER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL ELEVATED TODAY...50-70 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND ONLY DROP
TO THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OR
MORE IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN AVERAGES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.

TOMORROW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD US...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ WELL NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL (WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) TO PARTS OF THE AREA. IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN INCREASED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD EXCEED AN INCH ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. AT THE VERY
LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR RIVERS
AND STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-031100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXCLUDING NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

NYZ032-033-031100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
229 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DENAULT CORNERS   42.61N  73.52W
07/02/2014                   RENSSELAER         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400195

KOLECI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICHMONDVILLE           42.63N  74.56W
07/02/2014                   SCHOHARIE          NY   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMBEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400196

KOLECI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
242 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST GREENBUSH          42.59N  73.70W
07/02/2014                   RENSSELAER         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COLUMBIA TURNPIKE AND SPRING HURST DR. NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400197

KOLECI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
247 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FULLERS                 42.72N  73.96W
07/02/2014                   ALBANY             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RTE 20 EB WB BETWEEN FULLER STATION RD AND RTE 158
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400198

KOLECI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
247 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ061-066-021915-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
247 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM AUSTERLITZ TO GREAT BARRINGTON TO 9 MILES WEST
OF CANAAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PITTSFIELD TO GREAT BARRINGTON TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT
BARRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SHEFFIELD AND LENOX BY 255 PM EDT
PITTSFIELD...CANAAN...EDDY FIELD AND LEE BY 300 PM EDT
NORFOLK BY 310 PM EDT
SANDISFIELD...BECKET AND OTIS BY 315 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4238 7302 4238 7306 4233 7306 4232 7304
      4197 7313 4198 7347 4219 7359 4247 7354
      4249 7300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 262DEG 27KT 4238 7337 4220 7338
          4199 7348

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
249 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW SCHENECTADY       42.80N  73.94W
07/02/2014                   SCHENECTADY        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            1-890 EB EXIT 6 TO 5 HAS RIGHT TWO LANES CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400199

KOLECI