Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Albany, NY

605 
WWUS51 KALY 021832
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
232 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYC113-115-021915-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140702T1915Z/
WASHINGTON NY-WARREN NY-
232 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR PILOT KNOB...OR 8 MILES EAST OF WARRENSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HULETTS LANDING AND SNODY DOCK BY 250 PM EDT...
  CLEMONS...DRESDEN CENTER...OTTENBURGS RAMP AND SABBATH DAY POINT BY
  255 PM EDT...
  HAGUE BY 305 PM EDT...
  PUTNAM...PUTNAM STATION AND GLENBURNIE BY 310 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE GEORGE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR 
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES 
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. 
DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4379 7335 4372 7336 4369 7340 4365 7342
      4355 7342 4337 7387 4339 7388 4340 7389
      4352 7400 4379 7364 4381 7338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 218DEG 25KT 4354 7360

$$

WRS/NAS

816 
WWUS51 KALY 021857 RRA
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
257 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYC113-115-021915-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140702T1915Z/
WASHINGTON NY-WARREN NY-
257 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OTTENBURGS RAMP...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF WHITEHALL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLENBURNIE AND INDIAN KETTLES BY 305 PM EDT...
  PUTNAM...PUTNAM STATION AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROGERS ROCK
  CAMPGROUND BY 310 PM EDT...
  WRIGHT BY 315 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV
OR TWITTER @NWSALBANY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4355 7342 4344 7370 4361 7372 4380 7354
      4381 7338 4379 7335 4372 7336 4369 7340
      4365 7342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 218DEG 25KT 4368 7345

$$

WRS/NAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOT AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #384 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

AS OF 105 PM EDT...ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING 1500-3500+ J/KG OVER THE REGION. THE
GREATER AMOUNTS ARE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE RAMPING UP TO 35-50 KTS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUES TO STEEPEN TO 6.5-7 C/KM AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH. WARM SEASON CSTAR WORK HAS SHOWN THE POTENTIAL INCREASES
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WITH A PREFRONTAL AND/OR LEE TROUGH IN THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST IN THE RIGHT PRECONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS LOOK LIKE A POTENTIAL CASE. DEEP ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS...AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO
BE 10 KTS OR LESS. PWATS ARE RUNNING 1-2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT IF RAINFALL
RATES APPROACH 1 -2+ INCHES IN A HOUR ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING
CONVECTION. WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANY ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVER THE
AREA THE PAST 5 DAYS OR SO.

A 1600 UTC SPECIAL KALY SOUNDING IS ALSO BEING DONE AT THIS TIME.

THE BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE COMBINING WITH A STRONG JULY
SUN WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE M80S ACROSS MOST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND AROUND 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN.

DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ADDING
DISCOMFORT TO THE HEAT. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. ONCE
AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL NARROWLY FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS /HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES REACH 100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR TWO OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE STILL WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE. WITH TIME...OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND SO
WILL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS 65 TO AROUND
70 WITH A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PRESS INTO THE
AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN HIGHER PWATS PERHAPS PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MIGHT HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT (PRE).

PER CSTAR STUDIES...IT LOOKS AS SOME OF THE KEY INGREDIENTS WILL
COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A PRE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH MAX WINDS LIKELY OVER
100KTS (AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC CURVED) TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE MAXIMUM JET ENTRANCE REGION.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN CENTRAL NY MIDDAY THURSDAY...ONLY
SLOWLY MOVING TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
POOL ALONG IT.

AT THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL BY LATE THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
LOWER TOMORROW DUE TO LOWER CAPE VALUES (CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG) AND
PERHAPS A LOT MORE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WE WENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER
MAV/LOWER MET GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH...CLOSE TO 70...EXCEPT 60S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO ONLY SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST...LAST TO EXIT NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MIGHT STILL BE PROCESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES EVEN
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...INDEPENDENCE DAY...SIGNALS ARE GOOD THAT IT WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY. THIS ASSUMES THE TROPICAL ARTHUR STORM TURNS MORE TO THE EAST
WELL OFF SHORE...INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND INSURING THAT THE COLD
FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS OUR ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE STILL
COULD BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS...MAINLY
EARLY.

DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR CANADA WILL INFILTRATE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE HELD TO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S.

THE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS WILL REALLY BE FELT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
A CLEARING SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY.

FOR ALL THE OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INTERNET SITE
(WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE WPC GUIDANCE
WAS FOLLOWED VERY CLOSELY EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +13C RANGE ON SATURDAY WITH W/NW
WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE U40S TO M50S.  MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH A COOL
EVENING...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD STILL FEATURE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE CLOSING OF THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH U70S
TO L80S OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...WITH LOWER TO M70S OVER THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE FCST AREA WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DEWPOINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS S-CNTRL
ONTARIO INTO SW QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT MAY GRAZE THE NW ZONES WITH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY MORNING. A SFC TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK HEATING.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID AND POSSIBLY
U80S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS...AND WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS VARIABLE...AND WE FOLLOWED WPC WITH THE FROPA LIKELY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID NOT GO WITH
LIKELY POPS YET ON TUE...AND WENT WITH CHC VALUES INSTEAD. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INCREASED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THE GFS...AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED FOR TUE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIAL IFR FOG TONIGHT...AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
VFR...HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUPS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSISTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KNOTS...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 03/02Z...THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THEIR WAKE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH A TRENDING OF WINDS
TOWARDS CALM...IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. IFR FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH KPOU BY 15Z AND HAVE INDICATED A PROB30 GROUP THERE WITH AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM...HUMID FLOW OF AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION MIDWEEK...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS WELL OVER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL ELEVATED TODAY...50-70 PERCENT...HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND ONLY DROP
TO THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MIGHT BE SEVERE. THEY COULD
ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH AVERAGE RAINFALL BASIN
AVERAGES WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TOMORROW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD MOVES TOWARD US...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A "PRE" WELL NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
COULD BRING A BAND OF STEADY TO HEAVY RAINFALL (WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS). IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS COULD BE 1-2 INCHES ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. AT THE VERY
LEAST...SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR RIVERS AND
STREAMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW TO ACTION STAGES.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...VTK/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-031100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
EXCLUDING NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

NYZ032-033-031100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
205 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ041-048>050-053-054-084-021815-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-
EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
146 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ROTTERDAM JUNCTION TO BALLSTON SPA TO MECHANICVILLE TO CENTER
BRUNSWICK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SCOTIA TO SARATOGA SPRINGS
TO MECHANICVILLE TO COHOES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GREENWICH BY 210 PM EDT
BALLSTON SPA...SARATOGA SPRINGS...CAMBRIDGE AND HOOSICK FALLS BY 215
PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4303 7385 4324 7351 4315 7330 4292 7332
      4266 7364 4286 7368 4295 7389 4274 7423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 224DEG 24KT 4285 7403 4301 7380
          4293 7359 4281 7360

WRS/NAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST GREENBUSH          42.59N  73.70W
07/02/2014                   RENSSELAER         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400193

KOLECI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ063-021845-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-
201 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WEST SHOKAN...OR ABOUT OVER GRAHAMSVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEST SHOKAN AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND BY 235 PM
EDT

LAT...LON 4175 7458 4184 7449 4187 7447 4196 7465
      4197 7466 4206 7430 4185 7421 4174 7457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 253DEG 21KT 4187 7454

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ042-043-021830-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-NORTHERN WARREN NY-
204 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WARRENSBURG...OR ABOUT OVER WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHESTERTOWN BY 210 PM EDT
BOLTON LANDING BY 215 PM EDT
HULETTS LANDING BY 225 PM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF HAGUE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF ROGERS ROCK CAMPGROUND BY
230 PM EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4382 7338 4351 7344 4343 7368 4344 7372
      4340 7388 4339 7396 4352 7409 4379 7366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 239DEG 40KT 4351 7380

WRS/NAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ060-061-065-066-021830-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
207 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINE
PLAINS...OR ABOUT 16 MILES EAST OF RHINEBECK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COPAKE BY 220 PM EDT

LAT...LON 4226 7360 4215 7333 4191 7350 4198 7372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 207DEG 25KT 4201 7359

JPV/IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
211 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HANNACROIX              42.43N  73.81W
07/02/2014                   GREENE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1400194

KOLECI