Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS St. Louis, MO

107 
WWUS53 KLSX 110637
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
137 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

MOC183-110700-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-140511T0700Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-
137 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 133 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW MELLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE ST. LOUIS...DARDENNE PRAIRIE...O'FALLON...COTTLEVILLE...WELDON
SPRING AND ST. PETERS.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 220 TO EXIT 222.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9060 3868 9062 3869 9065 3868 9068
      3866 9069 3864 9072 3866 9090 3879 9090
      3880 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 269DEG 25KT 3875 9082

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

098 
WWUS53 KLSX 110702
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
202 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

MOC183-110712-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-140511T0700Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-
202 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM.

LAT...LON 3869 9060 3868 9062 3869 9065 3868 9068
      3866 9069 3864 9072 3866 9090 3879 9090
      3880 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 269DEG 25KT 3875 9082

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
118 AM CDT Sun May 11 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 949 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection has morphed into broken line that should reach STL area
by around 04z. Have not talked to SPC yet about any extension of
watch, but that is certainly a possibility. While complex works SE,
WAA in its wake is already producing non-severe convection in a
broad band along and E of a KCOU-Chilicothe line, with additional
upstream convection over E KS. With sustained WAA across the area,
and fairly unstable air advecting into the region, see no true and
sustained break in the convection. In other words...it's gonna be
a long night.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Certainly appears that one or more rounds of intense convection are
in the offing for the CWA tonight. However, the devil is in the
details, and the exact specifics of evolution of this/these threats
remain uncertain at this time.

Almost all of the guidance suggests storms will continue to
intensify over west central and/or northwest MO over the next few
hours, with additional more hit and miss convection possible further
E in our CWA near/S of warm front (near a KJEF-KMVN line as of 20z)
where MLCAPES are now 2000-2500j/kg but AMS is apparently being
suppressed by overall lack of forcing as well as weak cap noted on
19z KSGF sounding. Given the amount of large scale shear and
instability any storm that manages to form over the next few hours
could become severe, but primary concern will be for convection
developing west of our CWA to grow upscale into a large complex
that will push east-southeast into the CWA during the evening.
While they differ in timing and somewhat in location, all of the
explicit models are suggesting this type of scenario.  While hail
and damaging winds may be the greatest threats, the possibility of
tornadoes will also exist near the warm front.

Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, increasing low
level jet should lead to additional development in the wake of the
first complex as it interacts with cool pool left behind this
evening's convection. Think any additional convection overnight
may be slightly further north, but of course that depends on where
the first round of storms track. While exact location of the E-W
QPF axis varies between the different solutions, there does appear
to be a fairly high threat of several rounds of convection
training across the area, so have added the have added mention of
heavy rain over about the N 2/3 of the CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Eventual evolution of late night convection will play a large role
on how Sunday's storm threat plays out, and we should have a
better handle on this as we watch how storms play out during the
overnight hours.  In general, expect some threat during the morning
as the overnight convection winds down, and then all of the models
indicate heights building fairly rapidly during the day as the upper
low digs into the 4 corners region.  This would suggest suppression
of much of the afternoon convection, but models disagree on how much
capping will occur.   For now have pretty much maintained going
forecast with chance pops primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River for the afternoon hours.

There should be a lull in convection for much of the area Sunday
evening, with thunderstorms overspreading the CWA from NW to SE late
Sunday night-Monday-Monday night as upper system and associated
strong cold front sweeps into the Mississippi Valley.

Some precip, primarily showers, should linger over the area on
Tuesday (and especially over the SE half of the CWA), as upper trof
slowly works its way east.  Since the front should be over the Ohio
Valley by this time our entire CWA will be in much cooler air.  This
should mean dramatically cooler temperatures than those of the next
few days, with Tuesday's highs generally in the 60s.

Very cool weather appears to be on tap for the remainder of next
week as an unseasonably strong upper level trof becomes parked
over the nation's midection. Along with the below average
temperatures, this should also mean periodic shower chances for
much of the CWA.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun May 11 2014

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next few hours. Expect VFR flight conditions with
east-southeast flow gusting to around 25kts outside of
thunderstorms. Expect storms to end across the area by 10-12Z.
Some guidance has MVFR CIGS developing across parts of central
Missouri by 11-12Z, but have left mention out for now as ceiling
heights are all AOA 4000FT outside of storms, and the sky is clear
to the south. Expect VFR flight conditions on Sunday with gusty
winds up to 25-30kts during the afternoon. There is a chance for
some isolated afternoon storms, but probability is too low to
mention in terminal forecasts at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:

Looks like at least two more storms will affect Lambert over the
next 2 hours or so. The first may pass just to the north of the
runway complex though. Gusty wind and hail will be possible with
both storms. Not expecting further thunderstorm development after
09Z at this time. Outside of storms, expect VFR flight conditions
to prevail with southeast flow. Wind may begin to gust as early as
12-14Z, but it looks like the best time for wind gusts will be
after 16Z this morning. VFR flight conditions should prevail today
with the aforementioned gusty south-southeast winds. There is a
slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, but probabilities
are too low at this time to mention in the TAF.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             3 SSE JONESBURG         38.81N  91.29W
05/11/2014  M0.88 INCH       WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             WARRENTON               38.82N  91.14W
05/11/2014  E1.25 INCH       WARREN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HAIL             TROY                    38.73N  89.89W
05/11/2014  M0.88 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RIGGINS ROAD AND IL ROUTE 162

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             WRIGHT CITY             38.83N  91.02W
05/11/2014  E0.25 INCH       WARREN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     HAIL             MARINE                  38.79N  89.78W
05/11/2014  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
105 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 AM     HAIL             2 WSW WENTZVILLE        38.80N  90.89W
05/11/2014  E0.75 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS