Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS St. Louis, MO

976 
WWUS53 KLSX 110443
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1143 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-139-110515-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140511T0515Z/
CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
1143 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY AND
EAST CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1139 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WILLIAMSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINEOLA...NEW FLORENCE...BIG SPRING...DANVILLE...AMERICUS AND
MCKITTRICK.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES GRAHAM CAVE STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 161 TO EXIT 175.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9176 3891 9141 3871 9142 3881 9181
      3882 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 292DEG 24KT 3885 9170

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

432 
WWUS53 KLSX 110444
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-139-110515-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140511T0515Z/
CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY AND
EAST CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1143 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WILLIAMSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN WILLIAMSBURG.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINEOLA...NEW FLORENCE...BIG SPRING...DANVILLE...AMERICUS AND
MCKITTRICK.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES GRAHAM CAVE STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 161 TO EXIT 175.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9171 3891 9142 3891 9141 3871 9142
      3881 9179 3881 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 286DEG 21KT 3885 9168

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

701 
WWUS53 KLSX 110459
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-110509-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140511T0515Z/
CALLAWAY MO-
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3884 9164 3891 9164 3888 9141 3884 9141
      3884 9142 3871 9142 3877 9165 3883 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 286DEG 21KT 3883 9158

$$

MOC139-110515-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-140511T0515Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY
COUNTY UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1155 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MINEOLA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BIG SPRING...AMERICUS AND MCKITTRICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9164 3891 9164 3888 9141 3884 9141
      3884 9142 3871 9142 3877 9165 3883 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 286DEG 21KT 3883 9158

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
956 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 949 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection has morphed into broken line that should reach STL area
by around 04z. Have not talked to SPC yet about any extension of
watch, but that is certainly a possibility. While complex works SE,
WAA in its wake is already producing non-severe convection in a
broad band along and E of a KCOU-Chilicothe line, with additional
upstream convection over E KS. With sustained WAA across the area,
and fairly unstable air advecting into the region, see no true and
sustained break in the convection. In other words...it's gonna be
a long night.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Certainly appears that one or more rounds of intense convection are
in the offing for the CWA tonight. However, the devil is in the
details, and the exact specifics of evolution of this/these threats
remain uncertain at this time.

Almost all of the guidance suggests storms will continue to
intensify over west central and/or northwest MO over the next few
hours, with additional more hit and miss convection possible further
E in our CWA near/S of warm front (near a KJEF-KMVN line as of 20z)
where MLCAPES are now 2000-2500j/kg but AMS is apparently being
suppressed by overall lack of forcing as well as weak cap noted on
19z KSGF sounding. Given the amount of large scale shear and
instability any storm that manages to form over the next few hours
could become severe, but primary concern will be for convection
developing west of our CWA to grow upscale into a large complex
that will push east-southeast into the CWA during the evening.
While they differ in timing and somewhat in location, all of the
explicit models are suggesting this type of scenario.  While hail
and damaging winds may be the greatest threats, the possibility of
tornadoes will also exist near the warm front.

Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, increasing low
level jet should lead to additional development in the wake of the
first complex as it interacts with cool pool left behind this
evening's convection. Think any additional convection overnight
may be slightly further north, but of course that depends on where
the first round of storms track. While exact location of the E-W
QPF axis varies between the different solutions, there does appear
to be a fairly high threat of several rounds of convection
training across the area, so have added the have added mention of
heavy rain over about the N 2/3 of the CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Eventual evolution of late night convection will play a large role
on how Sunday's storm threat plays out, and we should have a
better handle on this as we watch how storms play out during the
overnight hours.  In general, expect some threat during the morning
as the overnight convection winds down, and then all of the models
indicate heights building fairly rapidly during the day as the upper
low digs into the 4 corners region.  This would suggest suppression
of much of the afternoon convection, but models disagree on how much
capping will occur.   For now have pretty much maintained going
forecast with chance pops primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River for the afternoon hours.

There should be a lull in convection for much of the area Sunday
evening, with thunderstorms overspreading the CWA from NW to SE late
Sunday night-Monday-Monday night as upper system and associated
strong cold front sweeps into the Mississippi Valley.

Some precip, primarily showers, should linger over the area on
Tuesday (and especially over the SE half of the CWA), as upper trof
slowly works its way east.  Since the front should be over the Ohio
Valley by this time our entire CWA will be in much cooler air.  This
should mean dramatically cooler temperatures than those of the next
few days, with Tuesday's highs generally in the 60s.

Very cool weather appears to be on tap for the remainder of next
week as an unseasonably strong upper level trof becomes parked
over the nation's midection. Along with the below average
temperatures, this should also mean periodic shower chances for
much of the CWA.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection in western MO is expected to congeal into a line and
reach the TAF sites between 01-04z. Depending on where the warm
front is and where any strong outflow boundaries are located when
the low level jet intensifies tonight, a second line of
thunderstorms may develop overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible again tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in timing is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Convection in western MO is
expected to congeal into a line and reach the St. Louis metro area
between 02-04z. Depending on where the warm front is and where any
strong outflow boundaries are located when the low level jet
intensifies tonight, a second line of thunderstorms may develop
overnight.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1108 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             WRIGHT CITY             38.83N  91.02W
05/10/2014  E0.25 INCH       WARREN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             WILLIAMSBURG            38.92N  91.70W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT SPOTTERS HOME.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
05/10/2014  E40 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     HAIL             O'FALLON                38.78N  90.71W
05/10/2014  E0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1128 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     HAIL             O'FALLON                38.78N  90.71W
05/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL AND SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL... BUT SMALLER THAN
            QUARTERS. WINDS ESTIMATED AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT
            INTERSECTION OF TR HUGHES AND I-70.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S JERSEYVILLE         39.09N  90.33W
05/10/2014  M55 MPH          JERSEY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FUCHS