Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS St. Louis, MO

688 
WWUS53 KLSX 110248
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
948 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-151-110330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-140511T0330Z/
CALLAWAY MO-OSAGE MO-
948 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OSAGE AND SOUTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 945 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEW BLOOMFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN        
         REPORTED IN NEW BLOOMFIELD AND WEST OF FULTON.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHAMOIS...TEBBETTS...MOKANE...FRANKENSTEIN...STEEDMAN...REFORM AND
PORTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9217 3891 9200 3883 9165 3881 9165
      3854 9183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 286DEG 30KT 3877 9198

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KANOFSKY

876 
WWUS53 KLSX 110308
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-151-110330-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-140511T0330Z/
CALLAWAY MO-OSAGE MO-
1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OSAGE AND CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1006 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHAMOIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHAMOIS AND REFORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9193 3882 9189 3878 9167 3859 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 286DEG 24KT 3873 9182

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

303 
WWUS53 KLSX 110326
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1026 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

MOC027-151-110336-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-140511T0330Z/
CALLAWAY MO-OSAGE MO-
1026 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE AND
CENTRAL CALLAWAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

LAT...LON 3870 9193 3882 9189 3878 9167 3859 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 286DEG 24KT 3870 9167

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Certainly appears that one or more rounds of intense convection are
in the offing for the CWA tonight. However, the devil is in the
details, and the exact specifics of evolution of this/these threats
remain uncertain at this time.

Almost all of the guidance suggests storms will continue to
intensify over west central and/or northwest MO over the next few
hours, with additional more hit and miss convection possible further
E in our CWA near/S of warm front (near a KJEF-KMVN line as of 20z)
where MLCAPES are now 2000-2500j/kg but AMS is apparently being
suppressed by overall lack of forcing as well as weak cap noted on
19z KSGF sounding. Given the amount of large scale shear and
instability any storm that manages to form over the next few hours
could become severe, but primary concern will be for convection
developing west of our CWA to grow upscale into a large complex
that will push east-southeast into the CWA during the evening.
While they differ in timing and somewhat in location, all of the
explicit models are suggesting this type of scenario.  While hail
and damaging winds may be the greatest threats, the possibility of
tornadoes will also exist near the warm front.

Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, increasing low
level jet should lead to additional development in the wake of the
first complex as it interacts with cool pool left behind this
evening's convection. Think any additional convection overnight
may be slightly further north, but of course that depends on where
the first round of storms track. While exact location of the E-W
QPF axis varies between the different solutions, there does appear
to be a fairly high threat of several rounds of convection
training across the area, so have added the have added mention of
heavy rain over about the N 2/3 of the CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Eventual evolution of late night convection will play a large role
on how Sunday's storm threat plays out, and we should have a
better handle on this as we watch how storms play out during the
overnight hours.  In general, expect some threat during the morning
as the overnight convection winds down, and then all of the models
indicate heights building fairly rapidly during the day as the upper
low digs into the 4 corners region.  This would suggest suppression
of much of the afternoon convection, but models disagree on how much
capping will occur.   For now have pretty much maintained going
forecast with chance pops primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River for the afternoon hours.

There should be a lull in convection for much of the area Sunday
evening, with thunderstorms overspreading the CWA from NW to SE late
Sunday night-Monday-Monday night as upper system and associated
strong cold front sweeps into the Mississippi Valley.

Some precip, primarily showers, should linger over the area on
Tuesday (and especially over the SE half of the CWA), as upper trof
slowly works its way east.  Since the front should be over the Ohio
Valley by this time our entire CWA will be in much cooler air.  This
should mean dramatically cooler temperatures than those of the next
few days, with Tuesday's highs generally in the 60s.

Very cool weather appears to be on tap for the remainder of next
week as an unseasonably strong upper level trof becomes parked
over the nation's midection. Along with the below average
temperatures, this should also mean periodic shower chances for
much of the CWA.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection in western MO is expected to congeal into a line and
reach the TAF sites between 01-04z. Depending on where the warm
front is and where any strong outflow boundaries are located when
the low level jet intensifies tonight, a second line of
thunderstorms may develop overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible again tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in timing is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Convection in western MO is
expected to congeal into a line and reach the St. Louis metro area
between 02-04z. Depending on where the warm front is and where any
strong outflow boundaries are located when the low level jet
intensifies tonight, a second line of thunderstorms may develop
overnight.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/10/2014  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH PORTION OF COLUMBIA CITY.

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
911 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COLUMBIA POLICE REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN DOWNTOWN
            COLUMBIA.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
917 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL CONTINUES IN COLUMBIA.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
924 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             3 E COLUMBIA            38.95N  92.27W
05/10/2014  E0.50 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE