Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS St. Louis, MO

377 
WWUS53 KLSX 110609
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
109 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

MOC219-110645-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-140511T0645Z/
WARREN MO-
109 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

AT 107 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
TRUESDALE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN WARREN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 9114 3882 9096 3867 9097 3868 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 272DEG 25KT 3874 9107

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

CVKING

106 
WWUS53 KLSX 110626
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
126 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

MOC219-110636-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-140511T0645Z/
WARREN MO-
126 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

LAT...LON 3878 9114 3882 9096 3867 9097 3868 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 272DEG 25KT 3873 9092

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
956 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 949 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection has morphed into broken line that should reach STL area
by around 04z. Have not talked to SPC yet about any extension of
watch, but that is certainly a possibility. While complex works SE,
WAA in its wake is already producing non-severe convection in a
broad band along and E of a KCOU-Chilicothe line, with additional
upstream convection over E KS. With sustained WAA across the area,
and fairly unstable air advecting into the region, see no true and
sustained break in the convection. In other words...it's gonna be
a long night.

Truett

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Certainly appears that one or more rounds of intense convection are
in the offing for the CWA tonight. However, the devil is in the
details, and the exact specifics of evolution of this/these threats
remain uncertain at this time.

Almost all of the guidance suggests storms will continue to
intensify over west central and/or northwest MO over the next few
hours, with additional more hit and miss convection possible further
E in our CWA near/S of warm front (near a KJEF-KMVN line as of 20z)
where MLCAPES are now 2000-2500j/kg but AMS is apparently being
suppressed by overall lack of forcing as well as weak cap noted on
19z KSGF sounding. Given the amount of large scale shear and
instability any storm that manages to form over the next few hours
could become severe, but primary concern will be for convection
developing west of our CWA to grow upscale into a large complex
that will push east-southeast into the CWA during the evening.
While they differ in timing and somewhat in location, all of the
explicit models are suggesting this type of scenario.  While hail
and damaging winds may be the greatest threats, the possibility of
tornadoes will also exist near the warm front.

Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, increasing low
level jet should lead to additional development in the wake of the
first complex as it interacts with cool pool left behind this
evening's convection. Think any additional convection overnight
may be slightly further north, but of course that depends on where
the first round of storms track. While exact location of the E-W
QPF axis varies between the different solutions, there does appear
to be a fairly high threat of several rounds of convection
training across the area, so have added the have added mention of
heavy rain over about the N 2/3 of the CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Eventual evolution of late night convection will play a large role
on how Sunday's storm threat plays out, and we should have a
better handle on this as we watch how storms play out during the
overnight hours.  In general, expect some threat during the morning
as the overnight convection winds down, and then all of the models
indicate heights building fairly rapidly during the day as the upper
low digs into the 4 corners region.  This would suggest suppression
of much of the afternoon convection, but models disagree on how much
capping will occur.   For now have pretty much maintained going
forecast with chance pops primarily along and east of the
Mississippi River for the afternoon hours.

There should be a lull in convection for much of the area Sunday
evening, with thunderstorms overspreading the CWA from NW to SE late
Sunday night-Monday-Monday night as upper system and associated
strong cold front sweeps into the Mississippi Valley.

Some precip, primarily showers, should linger over the area on
Tuesday (and especially over the SE half of the CWA), as upper trof
slowly works its way east.  Since the front should be over the Ohio
Valley by this time our entire CWA will be in much cooler air.  This
should mean dramatically cooler temperatures than those of the next
few days, with Tuesday's highs generally in the 60s.

Very cool weather appears to be on tap for the remainder of next
week as an unseasonably strong upper level trof becomes parked
over the nation's midection. Along with the below average
temperatures, this should also mean periodic shower chances for
much of the CWA.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection in western MO is expected to congeal into a line and
reach the TAF sites between 01-04z. Depending on where the warm
front is and where any strong outflow boundaries are located when
the low level jet intensifies tonight, a second line of
thunderstorms may develop overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible again tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in timing is too
low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Convection in western MO is
expected to congeal into a line and reach the St. Louis metro area
between 02-04z. Depending on where the warm front is and where any
strong outflow boundaries are located when the low level jet
intensifies tonight, a second line of thunderstorms may develop
overnight.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     HAIL             EDWARDSVILLE            38.80N  89.97W
05/11/2014  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             3 SSE JONESBURG         38.81N  91.29W
05/11/2014  M0.88 INCH       WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             WARRENTON               38.82N  91.14W
05/11/2014  E1.25 INCH       WARREN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     HAIL             TROY                    38.73N  89.89W
05/11/2014  M0.88 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RIGGINS ROAD AND IL ROUTE 162

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             WRIGHT CITY             38.83N  91.02W
05/11/2014  E0.25 INCH       WARREN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     HAIL             MARINE                  38.79N  89.78W
05/11/2014  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GKS