Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Jackson, MS

516 
WGUS54 KJAN 141116
FFWJAN
MSC079-121-123-141330-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-140414T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
616 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
  RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HARPERVILLE...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 616 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.           
  ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE      
  INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUSCOLA...
  MADDEN AND LUDLOW

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8933 3239 9006 3244 9005 3248 9002
      3250 8998 3249 8996 3259 8984 3258 8983
      3259 8979 3258 8979 3264 8973 3279 8972
      3280 8933

$$

19

039 
WGUS54 KJAN 141320
FFWJAN
MSC079-121-123-141530-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-140414T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
  RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HARPERVILLE...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 818 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED      
  RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES HAVE     
  OCCURRED IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUSCOLA...
  MADDEN AND LUDLOW

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR 
THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8933 3239 9006 3244 9005 3248 9002
      3250 8998 3249 8996 3259 8984 3258 8983
      3259 8979 3258 8979 3264 8973 3279 8972
      3280 8933

$$

19

941 
WGUS54 KJAN 141527
FFWJAN
MSC079-121-123-141830-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-140414T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LEAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
  NORTHERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HARPERVILLE...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1024 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR            
  INDICATED THAT ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
  THE WARNED AREA SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST 
  AMOUNTS IN THE AREA AROUND LUDLOW AND RATLIFFS FERRY. SOME FLASH 
  FLOODING OF ROADS AND STREAMS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUSCOLA...
  MADDEN AND LUDLOW

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED 
AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE. 
WHILE THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY AS WHAT FELL EARLIER
THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL KEEP RUNOFF CONTINUING AND PREVENT WATER 
FROM RECEDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8933 3239 9006 3244 9005 3248 9002
      3250 8998 3249 8996 3259 8984 3258 8983
      3259 8979 3258 8979 3264 8973 3279 8972
      3280 8933

$$

AEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING AREA RAOB ANALYSES REVEAL PLUME OF VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND OVER LA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR INDICATED BY
JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTENING STILL NEEDS TO TAKE
PLACE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT
AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EVENTUALLY FLOODING AS
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STALLS. IT SEEMS TO BE LOCKING
ONTO AN AREA ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR RAYVILLE TO JACKSON
FOR HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL (PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES BY EARLY
MORNING)...WHICH COULD HAPPEN GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW IN EXIT REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION THE SAME FOR
NOW. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

.PERIODS OF POTENT STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED STARTING LATE
TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

BUSY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT..FOLLOWED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID APRIL FREEZE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE DELTA INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE EVENING WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONGUE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LEADING EDGE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
WHILE LAPSE RATES AREN'T TERRIFIC WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
HELP ORGANIZE SOME UPDRAFTS AND YIELD A NOCTURNAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO RISK. CURRENT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN
THE INHERITED HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

REST OF THE DAY MONDAY...LIKE WE'VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A LULL IN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER.
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON STOUT HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG FORCING WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL RISK TO DEVELOP. AND ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ITS STILL NON-ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALIZED. ONCE
AGAIN...I'M NOT SURE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE
HAZARDS WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IS NEEDED AND WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO AN END.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINS...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A SWATH OF
1.5-2.5 IN EXTENDING FROM VKS TO CBM WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH TUE MORNING. 12Z EURO HAS MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD 1.5-2 IN ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MS. LOCAL WRF SHOWS HIGHEST SWATHS OF PRECIP (GREATER THAN 2
IN) ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON
JUST WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL COME IN...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACE
AND HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON NIGHT. WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ARE HESITANT SHOWING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 2.5
INCHES...CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CERTAIN
AREAS. THIS WILL EASILY POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK IF THESE HEAVIER
SWATHS FALL IN VICINITY OF ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THE RAINS LOOK TO FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TUE MORNING
WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR A
WIND ADVISORY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
THAT SITUATION.

CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WED MORNING SETTING UP
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. A LATE SEASON FREEZE
WARNING MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. STAY TUNED. /BK/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

CONDITIONS WILL THANKFULLY BE WARMING UP ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY TO MAKE IT BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AGAIN DIGS A BIT
BACK TO OUR WEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL AND A FAIR NUMBER OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN RESOLVING THIS NEXT BATCH OF
INCOMING TROUGH ENERGY IN SIZABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVERSELY...THE MORE
TRUSTWORTHY LONG RANGE MODEL PERFORMER WHICH IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
IS NOT IS NOT SO GUNG HO. PART OF THE REASON (BEYOND PAST
PERFORMANCE LOGIC) TO THINK THE EURO HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IS THAT THE
INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A GLOBAL EQUATORIAL
OSCILLATION AND TRIGGERING A BULK OF CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR NOW I CUT BACK
MEX (GFS-BASED) POPS ALTHOUGH STILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
IN PLAY.

BEYOND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE MUDDLED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO COME AROUND WITH NO
PROSPECT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  73  42  54 / 100 100  63   4
MERIDIAN      64  78  47  59 /  79 100  82  11
VICKSBURG     66  75  40  56 / 100 100  48   0
HATTIESBURG   66  80  50  60 /  76 100  73  11
NATCHEZ       67  76  37  53 / 100 100  45   3
GREENVILLE    67  68  37  53 / 100 100  43   0
GREENWOOD     67  70  38  54 / 100 100  56   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-142230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BEING
THE PRIMARY RISK ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI
LINE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-142230-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-JONES-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY MONDAY

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY
RISK. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MSZ037-043-044-048>050-053>056-059>065-072>074-142230-
ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY RISK. A FEW TORNADOES AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EC

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
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WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
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MSZ037-140945-
ATTALA MS-
359 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF POSSUMNECK TO 13 MILES WEST OF NEWPORT
AT 359 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN ATTALA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3328 8931 3293 8932 3293 8972 3289 8973
      3288 8996 3293 8990 3300 8988 3307 8982
      3311 8983 3313 8979 3319 8978 3320 8975
      3329 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 282DEG 39KT 3324 8966 3307 8973
          3292 8991

19

MSZ043-141000-
MADISON MS-
409 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM CAMERON TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORA AT 409
AM CDT...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN MADISON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3258 8979 3259 8979 3259 8984 3249 8996
      3248 9002 3243 9007 3240 9006 3240 9024
      3248 9024 3251 9031 3260 9034 3264 9031
      3270 9010 3275 9004 3283 9002 3287 8997
      3289 8977 3276 8973 3264 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 346DEG 37KT 3282 8986 3263 9024

19

MSZ051-141020-
NEWTON MS-
422 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PROSPECT TO 15 MILES WEST OF
CONEHATTA AT 422 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NEWTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3223 8932 3257 8932 3258 8925 3258 8892
      3222 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 313DEG 19KT 3263 8918 3248 8951

19

MSZ044-141025-
LEAKE MS-
425 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SINGLETON TO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THOMASTOWN AT 425 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN LEAKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3257 8932 3258 8972 3293 8972 3293 8932
      3258 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 302DEG 32KT 3294 8956 3278 8967
          3271 8978

19

MSZ046-141030-
KEMPER MS-
429 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRESTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF
DAMASCUS AT 429 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN KEMPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3258 8838 3258 8839 3258 8891 3292 8892
      3293 8835 3292 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 273DEG 25KT 3294 8869 3268 8904

19

MSZ049-141035-
RANKIN MS-
434 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF LEESBURG TO 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FLOWOOD AT 434 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3205 9023 3211 9025 3215 9026 3220 9019
      3225 9020 3235 9011 3238 9010 3239 9007
      3243 9007 3248 9002 3252 8992 3259 8984
      3258 8978 3236 8973 3204 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 317DEG 33KT 3264 8969 3236 9023

19