Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Jackson, MS

688 
WGUS74 KJAN 141016
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MSC055-149-163-141115-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140414T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-
516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT FOR
YAZOO...ISSAQUENA AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 516 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. A FEW 
ROADS AROUND LITTLE YAZOO WERE REPORTED FLOODED. ESTIMATED RADAR 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VAUGHAN...
BENTON...MYRLEVILLE...PHOENIX...LITTLE YAZOO...TINSLEY...HOLLY
BLUFF...VALLEY PARK...MIDWAY AND YAZOO CITY

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9112 3266 9068 3284 9076 3293 9045
      3301 9044 3288 8996 3270 9010 3250 9058
      3225 9075 3225 9097 3237 9087 3238 9088
      3234 9091 3247 9110 3248 9111 3255 9109
      3250 9099 3255 9108 3263 9100 3265 9113

$$

CME

533 
WGUS54 KJAN 141107
FFWJAN
MSC055-149-163-141315-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140414T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY...
  ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VALLEY PARK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 607 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.           
  ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR       
  INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PHOENIX...
  VAUGHAN...BENTON...MYRLEVILLE...LITTLE YAZOO...TINSLEY...HOLLY
  BLUFF AND MIDWAY

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9112 3266 9068 3284 9076 3293 9045
      3301 9044 3288 8996 3270 9010 3250 9058
      3225 9075 3225 9097 3237 9087 3238 9088
      3234 9091 3247 9110 3248 9111 3255 9109
      3250 9099 3255 9108 3263 9100 3265 9113

$$

19

024 
WGUS54 KJAN 141307
FFWJAN
MSC055-149-163-141515-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140414T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
807 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY...
  ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VALLEY PARK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.           
  ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR       
  INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST FOUR HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PHOENIX...
  VAUGHAN...BENTON...MYRLEVILLE...LITTLE YAZOO...TINSLEY...HOLLY
  BLUFF AND MIDWAY

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9112 3266 9068 3284 9076 3293 9045
      3301 9044 3288 8996 3270 9010 3250 9058
      3225 9075 3225 9097 3237 9087 3238 9088
      3234 9091 3247 9110 3248 9111 3255 9109
      3250 9099 3255 9108 3263 9100 3265 9113

$$

19

602 
WGUS54 KJAN 141500
FFWJAN
MSC055-149-163-141715-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-140414T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY...
  ISSAQUENA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VALLEY PARK...
  WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD...VICKSBURG...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1000 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL FROM SHOWERS AND         
  THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.  ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL      
  AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER
  IN THE PAST FIVE HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE 
  WARNED AREA AND IS ONGOING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PHOENIX...
  VAUGHAN...BENTON...MYRLEVILLE...LITTLE YAZOO...TINSLEY...HOLLY
  BLUFF AND MIDWAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND 
LIFT INTO THE WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WITH AN 
ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9112 3266 9068 3284 9076 3293 9045
      3301 9044 3288 8996 3270 9010 3250 9058
      3225 9075 3225 9097 3237 9087 3238 9088
      3234 9091 3247 9110 3248 9111 3255 9109
      3250 9099 3255 9108 3263 9100 3265 9113

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING AREA RAOB ANALYSES REVEAL PLUME OF VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND OVER LA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR INDICATED BY
JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTENING STILL NEEDS TO TAKE
PLACE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT
AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EVENTUALLY FLOODING AS
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STALLS. IT SEEMS TO BE LOCKING
ONTO AN AREA ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR RAYVILLE TO JACKSON
FOR HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL (PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES BY EARLY
MORNING)...WHICH COULD HAPPEN GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW IN EXIT REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION THE SAME FOR
NOW. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

.PERIODS OF POTENT STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED STARTING LATE
TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

BUSY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT..FOLLOWED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID APRIL FREEZE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE DELTA INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE EVENING WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONGUE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LEADING EDGE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
WHILE LAPSE RATES AREN'T TERRIFIC WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
HELP ORGANIZE SOME UPDRAFTS AND YIELD A NOCTURNAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO RISK. CURRENT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN
THE INHERITED HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

REST OF THE DAY MONDAY...LIKE WE'VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A LULL IN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER.
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON STOUT HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG FORCING WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL RISK TO DEVELOP. AND ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ITS STILL NON-ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALIZED. ONCE
AGAIN...I'M NOT SURE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE
HAZARDS WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IS NEEDED AND WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO AN END.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINS...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A SWATH OF
1.5-2.5 IN EXTENDING FROM VKS TO CBM WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH TUE MORNING. 12Z EURO HAS MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD 1.5-2 IN ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MS. LOCAL WRF SHOWS HIGHEST SWATHS OF PRECIP (GREATER THAN 2
IN) ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON
JUST WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL COME IN...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACE
AND HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON NIGHT. WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ARE HESITANT SHOWING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 2.5
INCHES...CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CERTAIN
AREAS. THIS WILL EASILY POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK IF THESE HEAVIER
SWATHS FALL IN VICINITY OF ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THE RAINS LOOK TO FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TUE MORNING
WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR A
WIND ADVISORY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
THAT SITUATION.

CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WED MORNING SETTING UP
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. A LATE SEASON FREEZE
WARNING MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. STAY TUNED. /BK/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

CONDITIONS WILL THANKFULLY BE WARMING UP ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY TO MAKE IT BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AGAIN DIGS A BIT
BACK TO OUR WEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL AND A FAIR NUMBER OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN RESOLVING THIS NEXT BATCH OF
INCOMING TROUGH ENERGY IN SIZABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVERSELY...THE MORE
TRUSTWORTHY LONG RANGE MODEL PERFORMER WHICH IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
IS NOT IS NOT SO GUNG HO. PART OF THE REASON (BEYOND PAST
PERFORMANCE LOGIC) TO THINK THE EURO HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IS THAT THE
INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A GLOBAL EQUATORIAL
OSCILLATION AND TRIGGERING A BULK OF CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR NOW I CUT BACK
MEX (GFS-BASED) POPS ALTHOUGH STILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
IN PLAY.

BEYOND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE MUDDLED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO COME AROUND WITH NO
PROSPECT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  73  42  54 / 100 100  63   4
MERIDIAN      64  78  47  59 /  79 100  82  11
VICKSBURG     66  75  40  56 / 100 100  48   0
HATTIESBURG   66  80  50  60 /  76 100  73  11
NATCHEZ       67  76  37  53 / 100 100  45   3
GREENVILLE    67  68  37  53 / 100 100  43   0
GREENWOOD     67  70  38  54 / 100 100  56   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-142230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BEING
THE PRIMARY RISK ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI
LINE HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-142230-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-JONES-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY MONDAY

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY
RISK. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MSZ037-043-044-048>050-053>056-059>065-072>074-142230-
ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY RISK. A FEW TORNADOES AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO FIVE INCHES COULD CAUSE FLOODING MONDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS IN SPOTS.

PATCHY FROST CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION IS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EC

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

LAZ024-140320-
CATAHOULA LA-
938 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANIFEST AT 939
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CATAHOULA PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3192 9161 3182 9157 3179 9158 3173 9153
      3172 9156 3176 9159 3173 9163 3174 9169
      3165 9171 3163 9176 3165 9178 3160 9182
      3154 9196 3165 9202 3172 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 243DEG 30KT 3167 9189

JC

LAZ015-023-140615-
RICHLAND LA-FRANKLIN LA-
1247 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED OVER LIDDIEVILLE AT 1247 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3239 9159 3207 9155 3203 9189 3209 9190
      3210 9188 3214 9190 3216 9190 3216 9192
      3218 9193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 250DEG 39KT 3215 9183

CME

ARZ075-MSZ034-035-140750-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
221 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM LELAND TO LAKE VILLAGE AT 221 AM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HUMPHREYS...CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN CHICOT
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3332 9145 3345 9084 3327 9076 3327 9067
      3321 9043 3311 9083 3300 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 305DEG 37KT 3337 9085 3329 9125

CME

MSZ019-025>028-036-140850-
SUNFLOWER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-LEFLORE MS-HOLMES MS-GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
250 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRENADA TO MOORHEAD AT 249 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...GRENADA...NORTHERN HOLMES...LEFLORE...MONTGOMERY
AND SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3346 8950 3346 8938 3343 8946
      3328 8945 3329 8970 3305 9012 3321 9034
      3331 9034 3324 9037 3333 9046 3327 9074
      3341 9077 3356 9045 3381 9045 3379 9017
      3374 9030 3371 9031 3369 9025 3389 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 274DEG 44KT 3383 8971 3363 9011
          3345 9051

19

MSZ029-140855-
WEBSTER MS-
310 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF EMBRY TO 15 MILES WEST OF EMBRY AT
310 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3374 8904 3364 8904 3363 8902 3356 8902
      3356 8908 3353 8909 3353 8918 3352 8927
      3346 8938 3346 8950 3373 8950 3373 8920
      3375 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 272DEG 39KT 3382 8940 3366 8959

19