Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tulsa, OK

728 
WWUS54 KTSA 010415
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC091-101-107-111-010425-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-130601T0415Z/
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1115 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE...CENTRAL MUSKOGEE AND NORTHERN MCINTOSH
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1115 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3563 9544 3539 9536 3528 9599 3529 9611
      3544 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 255DEG 32KT 3543 9559

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1009 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO THREAT IS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT BUT IS NOT TOTALLY GONE.
HAIL AND WIND WILL BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASING AS STORM COVERAGE
EXPANDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO GET A SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
AND EXPECTED TRENDS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
EVENT TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LARGE AND VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT WILL
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELLS AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
THESE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS.

TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE MODE WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND LARGE HAIL RISK. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
TORANDIC SUPERCELLS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER
THE SAME AREAS. MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
REACHED SATURATION ALONG WITH MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY IN
FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ESCALATE THE ONSET OF
FLASH FLOODING. SEE /OKCFFATSA/ FOR FLOOD WATCH DETAILS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
WORK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-312230-
OSAGE OK-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 452 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9638 3699 9639 3679 9675 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3680 9676 3694 9676 3700 9676
      3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 233DEG 38KT 3689 9677

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054>056-061-010215-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 839 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
OCHELATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TALALA...WOLCO...RAMONA AND
OCHELATA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3684 9578 3653 9568 3643 9601 3664 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 241DEG 42KT 3656 9596

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ056-010245-
NOWATA OK-
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA

AT 859 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE AND LENAPAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3698 9563 3681 9543 3679 9543 3660 9571
      3660 9573 3671 9581 3672 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 230DEG 35KT 3669 9570

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
911 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          WATOVA                  36.62N 95.66W
05/31/2013                   NOWATA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS SPOTTER REPORTS OF A TORNADO IN THE WATOVA AREA.
            TREE DAMAGE AND DAMAGE TO A HOME REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 W DRUMRIGHT           35.99N 96.62W
05/31/2013  E1.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 33

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054>056-061-010300-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
929 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN ROGERS AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 929 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RAMONA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...WATOVA...
TALALA...VERA...RAMONA AND OCHELATA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3682 9566 3650 9550 3642 9600 3659 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 255DEG 29KT 3650 9593