Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

023 
WGUS74 KTSA 010753
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

OKC035-037-105-113-117-131-147-011230-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130601T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
253 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...PAWNEE...OSAGE...NOWATA...NORTHWESTERN CREEK
AND NORTHWESTERN CRAIG COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 730 AM
CDT...

AT 252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS 
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...AND WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.  

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...AVANT...BARNSDALL...
BARTLESVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...BIGHEART...BLACKBURN...BURBANK...
CLEVELAND...COPAN...DELAWARE...DEWEY...DRUMRIGHT...FAIRFAX...
FORAKER...GRAINOLA...HALLETT...HOMINY...HULAH...JENNINGS...LENAPAH...
MARAMEC...OCHELATA...OILTON...OKESA...OSAGE...OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK
AND PEARSONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

A MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR
WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9508 3642 9591 3642 9600 3636 9600
      3597 9662 3615 9663 3615 9681 3624 9682
      3624 9692 3633 9693 3633 9704 3651 9704
      3658 9690 3659 9705 3668 9707 3669 9695
      3675 9689 3675 9683 3679 9676 3701 9675

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING KBVO...
KTUL... AND KRVS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SITES FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST...
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT...

BY MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE
SET UP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STORM INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE CAPABLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER AN AREA OF
WARM ADVECTION AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. STORMS LOOK TO REACH THE RED RIVER EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
COLUMN OF AIR SHOULD BECOME SATURATED. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND AND OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL CREATE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 3-5
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOWARDS 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ON TOP OF THE AMOUNTS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FINALLY OVERCOMES THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER OOZ AND TO INTERSTATE 44
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
BY 00Z MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING
MOISTURE/WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALSO TIME OF
YEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
EVENT TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LARGE AND VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT WILL
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELLS AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
THESE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS.

TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE MODE WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND LARGE HAIL RISK. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
TORANDIC SUPERCELLS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER
THE SAME AREAS. MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
REACHED SATURATION ALONG WITH MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY IN
FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ESCALATE THE ONSET OF
FLASH FLOODING. SEE /OKCFFATSA/ FOR FLOOD WATCH DETAILS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
WORK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-055-312100-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 335 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HULAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HULAH AND WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9607 3700 9579 3689 9600 3693 9616
      3701 9612 3701 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 223DEG 30KT 3694 9603

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-312230-
OSAGE OK-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 452 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9638 3699 9639 3679 9675 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3680 9676 3694 9676 3700 9676
      3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 233DEG 38KT 3689 9677