Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Tulsa, OK

515 
WWUS54 KTSA 010313
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC107-010345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-130601T0345Z/
OKFUSKEE OK-
1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY...

AT 1011 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
WELEETKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELEETKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE OUTDOORS
SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 9640 3531 9639 3536 9637 3541 9633
      3532 9598 3528 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 289DEG 32KT 3532 9629

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING KBVO...
KTUL... AND KRVS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SITES FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST...
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT...

BY MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE
SET UP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STORM INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE CAPABLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER AN AREA OF
WARM ADVECTION AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. STORMS LOOK TO REACH THE RED RIVER EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
COLUMN OF AIR SHOULD BECOME SATURATED. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND AND OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL CREATE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 3-5
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOWARDS 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ON TOP OF THE AMOUNTS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FINALLY OVERCOMES THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER OOZ AND TO INTERSTATE 44
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
BY 00Z MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING
MOISTURE/WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALSO TIME OF
YEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
EVENT TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LARGE AND VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT WILL
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELLS AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
THESE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS.

TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE MODE WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND LARGE HAIL RISK. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
TORANDIC SUPERCELLS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER
THE SAME AREAS. MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
REACHED SATURATION ALONG WITH MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY IN
FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ESCALATE THE ONSET OF
FLASH FLOODING. SEE /OKCFFATSA/ FOR FLOOD WATCH DETAILS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
WORK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-312230-
OSAGE OK-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 452 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9638 3699 9639 3679 9675 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3680 9676 3694 9676 3700 9676
      3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 233DEG 38KT 3689 9677

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054>056-061-010215-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
838 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 839 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
OCHELATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TALALA...WOLCO...RAMONA AND
OCHELATA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3684 9578 3653 9568 3643 9601 3664 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 241DEG 42KT 3656 9596

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ056-010245-
NOWATA OK-
859 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA

AT 859 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NOWATA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE AND LENAPAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3698 9563 3681 9543 3679 9543 3660 9571
      3660 9573 3671 9581 3672 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 230DEG 35KT 3669 9570

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
911 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          WATOVA                  36.62N 95.66W
05/31/2013                   NOWATA             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS SPOTTER REPORTS OF A TORNADO IN THE WATOVA AREA.
            TREE DAMAGE AND DAMAGE TO A HOME REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
923 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             1 W DRUMRIGHT           35.99N 96.62W
05/31/2013  E1.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 33

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054>056-061-010300-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
929 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN ROGERS AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 929 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RAMONA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...WATOVA...
TALALA...VERA...RAMONA AND OCHELATA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3682 9566 3650 9550 3642 9600 3659 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 255DEG 29KT 3650 9593