Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Tulsa, OK

486 
WWUS54 KTSA 010051
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC035-115-010115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-130601T0115Z/
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTIES...

AT 749 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WELCH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WELCH...
MIAMI...COMMERCE...TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK...PICHER...CARDIN...QUAPAW
AND OTTAWA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 304 AND 317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE OUTDOORS
SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY IN THESE CONDITIONS. TAKE COVER ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. PREPARE
TO TAKE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS ON SHORT NOTICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3684 9527 3695 9528 3700 9525 3700 9471
      3680 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 266DEG 31KT 3695 9513

$$

652 
WWUS54 KTSA 010113
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKC035-115-010123-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-130601T0115Z/
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
813 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

LAT...LON 3684 9527 3695 9528 3700 9525 3700 9471
      3680 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 266DEG 31KT 3696 9489

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING KBVO...
KTUL... AND KRVS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SITES FURTHER EAST
AND SOUTH WILL BE AFFECTED BY STRONG STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE FORECAST...
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT...

BY MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE
SET UP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STORM INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. HIGH AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE CAPABLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER AN AREA OF
WARM ADVECTION AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. STORMS LOOK TO REACH THE RED RIVER EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
COLUMN OF AIR SHOULD BECOME SATURATED. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND AND OVER 1.5 INCHES WILL CREATE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 3-5
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TOWARDS 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ON TOP OF THE AMOUNTS THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FINALLY OVERCOMES THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER OOZ AND TO INTERSTATE 44
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
BY 00Z MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING
MOISTURE/WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALSO TIME OF
YEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
535 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
EVENT TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LARGE AND VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT WILL
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY INTO SUPERCELLS AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
THESE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE AND VIOLENT
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 80 MILE AN HOUR WINDS.

TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE MODE WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A
STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND LARGE HAIL RISK. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR
TORANDIC SUPERCELLS MAY EXIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER
THE SAME AREAS. MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
REACHED SATURATION ALONG WITH MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS ALREADY IN
FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ESCALATE THE ONSET OF
FLASH FLOODING. SEE /OKCFFATSA/ FOR FLOOD WATCH DETAILS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
WORK IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF SETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-055-312100-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 335 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HULAH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HULAH AND WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9607 3700 9579 3689 9600 3693 9616
      3701 9612 3701 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 223DEG 30KT 3694 9603

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

OKZ054-312230-
OSAGE OK-
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 452 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GRAINOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9638 3699 9639 3679 9675 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3680 9676 3694 9676 3700 9676
      3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 233DEG 38KT 3689 9677