Alert archive / Nebraska / Tornado Watches in 2013

Tornado Watch 539

October 4, 201318 counties in Iowa; 32 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 4, 2013, 2:38 PM CDT for 18 counties in Iowa; 32 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2013, 2:38 PM CDT (19:38 UTC)
Expired
Oct 4, 2013, 9:37 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 50 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Ida County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Page County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 4, 4:43 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXStanton, Wayne32 min
Oct 4, 5:01 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXCedar, Stanton, Wayne29 min
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXAntelope, Knox, Pierce49 min
Oct 4, 5:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXJohnson, Nemaha, Pawnee29 min
Oct 4, 5:20 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFSDDixon40 min
Oct 4, 5:22 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXAntelope, Knox38 min
Oct 4, 5:28 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXWayne32 min
Oct 4, 5:37 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXCedar, Knox23 min
Oct 4, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXOtoe30 min
Oct 4, 5:45 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXThurston45 min
Oct 4, 5:48 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFSDDakota, Dixon42 min
Oct 4, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills27 min
Oct 4, 6:04 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXMonona41 min
Oct 4, 6:07 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDWoodbury38 min
Oct 4, 6:11 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFSDPlymouth49 min
Oct 4, 6:16 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDDixon29 min
Oct 4, 6:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMills37 min
Oct 4, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXMills, Pottawattamie34 min
Oct 4, 6:43 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDCherokee, Ida, Plymouth, Woodbury47 min
Oct 4, 6:55 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFSDPlymouth, Sioux50 min
Oct 4, 6:57 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDPlymouth18 min
Oct 4, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page34 min
Oct 4, 7:22 PM CDTTornado Warning EmergencyFSDCherokee38 min
Oct 4, 7:25 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFSDPlymouth35 min
Oct 4, 7:42 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedOAXMills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie33 min
Oct 4, 7:54 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDBuena Vista, Cherokee36 min
Oct 4, 8:27 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDBuena Vista, Clay33 min
Oct 4, 8:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDBuena Vista42 min
Oct 4, 8:55 PM CDTTornado WarningFSDClay20 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2013-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 97 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2013-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 76 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
97 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-211 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
898 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

889 
WWUS20 KWNS 041938
SEL9  
SPC WW 041938
IAZ000-NEZ000-050300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN IOWA
  EASTERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NEB.  THOSE
STORMS WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 7:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Cass, Clarke, Dallas and 23 more2 hr
Oct 3, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk and 49 more9 hr
Oct 3, 9:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFremont, Mills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie5 hr
Oct 3, 11:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Boone and 41 more93 min
Oct 4, 2:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Black Hawk and 70 more84 min
Oct 4, 4:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cedar, Clinton, Jackson, Jones, Linn85 min
Oct 4, 9:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Cedar, Clinton, Davis, Decatur, Des Moines and 15 more87 min
Oct 4, 1:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Calhoun and 36 more2 hr
Oct 4, 5:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Buena Vista, Carroll, Cass and 20 more85 min
Oct 4, 6:42 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll and 29 more5 hr
Oct 4, 3:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb and 6 more9 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2013Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2013Every tornado watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.