Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Omaha, NE

October 4, 2013Otoe County, Nebraska

NWS Omaha, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 4, 2013, 5:45 PM CDT for Otoe County, Nebraska. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2013, 5:45 PM CDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2013, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Omaha, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Otoe County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 4, 2:38 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 97 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -211 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 898 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 4, 3:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 3:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK COMING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CURRENT VW IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
PROFILE NETWORK DEPICTING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. STOUT DPVA IN THE MEANTIME HAS INDUCED
A DEEP SFC LOW CENTERED IN S-CNTRL NEB WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS...DOWN THRU CNTRL NEB...AND INTO WRN
KS.

AMPLE GULF MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DEPICTED BY
MORNING PRECIP WATER VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 200-225% OF NORM INVOF
LLVL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. ALSO NOTED FROM SFC OBS
IS DISTINCT DRY-LINE PUSHING INTO CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
DRY SLOT. DAY TIME HEATING WITHIN AREA OF CLEARING IS ALREADY
PUSHING MUCAPES TO AROUND 3000 J/K IN ERN KS...WITH RAP13 MUCAPES
PEAKING AROUND 5000 J/KG AND SHIFTING INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
ALL THIS HAS CULMINATED IN A MODERATE RISK TO BE ISSUED OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA.

THIS AFTN/EVENING...HRRR GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SFC LOW FROM CNTRL NEB
INTO ERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA WITH CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE BNDRY WHEN
SUFFICIENT HEATING EVENTUALLY ERODES ANY CAPPING. COMBINATION OF
SYSTEM DYNAMICS/FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CREATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...QUITE ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY BEST REVEALED BY RAP13
EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PROGS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 420
J/KG PHASING WITH BEST CAPE/MINIMUM CINH/ML LCL AND ML LFC. AT THIS
POINT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER 4PM JUST WEST OF THE MO RIVER...WITH QUICK INTENSIFICATION AS
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO WRN IA SOMETIME AROUND 6PM.

SAT/SUN MORNING...PRETTY GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA IN RESPONSE TO
WRAP AROUND MOIST/WAA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS. SUN
NIGHT/MON DRY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING THRU.

DEE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST DIFFERENTLY
IT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION...IT'S JUST FIGURING OUT IF ITS A
LITTLE QUICKER LIKE THE ECMWF...OR A LITTLE SLOWER LIKE THE GFS.
EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE MILD AND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACH THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS QUICKER AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
COMPROMISE...WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT IT COULD EASILY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
AS WELL.

DEWALD

&&

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF 20-23Z AT KOFK/KLNK AND 22-
01Z AT KOMA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE...FROM SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 22 KNOTS...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 4:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREAT AS WELL. ALL THIS IN
PART TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WITH STOUT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE...STORMS WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPING.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND PUSH EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN EARLY EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 4:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
426 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

NEZ017-018-031-032-042200-
MADISON NE-STANTON NE-PIERCE NE-WAYNE NE-
426 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN STANTON...SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND WESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STANTON...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...WINSIDE...HOSKINS AND CARROLL.

 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4231 9708 4188 9721 4189 9742 4209 9740
      4209 9741 4210 9740 4233 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 183DEG 34KT 4196 9733

FOBERT

Local storm report, Oct 4, 4:48 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
448 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TORNADO          2 SW STANTON            41.93N 97.25W
10/04/2013                   STANTON            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF ROPE TORNADO.

&&

RCHERMOK

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:20 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
520 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TORNADO          6 S WAYNE               42.15N 97.02W
10/04/2013                   WAYNE              NE   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF A LARGE MULTI-VORTEX TORNADO.

&&

CZAPOTOCNY

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:36 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
536 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TORNADO          2 N CREIGHTON           42.49N 97.91W
10/04/2013                   KNOX               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND HEADING NORTH.

&&

RCHERMOK

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 5:37 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
537 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

NEZ068-090-091-042300-
JOHNSON NE-OTOE NE-NEMAHA NE-
537 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...OTOE AND
NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COOK...OR 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEATRICE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COOK...TALMAGE...DUNBAR...OTOE AND LORTON VILLAGE.

 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4040 9606 4046 9625 4075 9611 4066 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 209DEG 50KT 4049 9611

DEWALD

Local storm report, Oct 4, 5:39 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
539 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TORNADO          2 SW WAYNE              42.22N 97.04W
10/04/2013                   WAYNE              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FARMHOUSE DESTROYED....COWS LOOSE RUNNING ALONG THE
            HWY...VEHICLE FLIPPED UPSIDE DOWN. NO REPORT YET IF
            ANYONE WAS HOME.

&&

DEE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Omaha, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 3, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Gage, Lancaster, Saline	35 min
Oct 3, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Gage, Lancaster, Saline	35 min
Oct 3, 9:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Gage, Lancaster	30 min
Oct 3, 9:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Saline	26 min
Oct 3, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Lancaster	52 min
Oct 3, 9:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Saline	48 min
Oct 3, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Saline	52 min
Oct 3, 9:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Cass, Sarpy	31 min
Oct 3, 10:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Lancaster	24 min
Oct 3, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Lancaster, Otoe	30 min
Oct 3, 10:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OAX	Lancaster, Otoe	34 min
Oct 3, 10:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Saline	32 min
Oct 3, 10:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OAX	Cass, Otoe	35 min
Oct 3, 10:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OAX	Lancaster, Saline, Seward	6 hr
Oct 3, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Gage, Lancaster, Saline	34 min
Oct 3, 11:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Platte	29 min
Oct 3, 11:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Cass	37 min
Oct 3, 11:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Gage, Johnson, Lancaster, Otoe	35 min
Oct 3, 11:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Cass, Sarpy	30 min
Oct 3, 11:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Butler, Colfax	51 min
Oct 4, 12:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Dodge, Saunders	64 min
Oct 4, 12:57 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OAX	Colfax, Platte	2 hr
Oct 4, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Wayne	34 min
Oct 4, 4:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OAX	Stanton, Wayne	32 min
Oct 4, 5:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Cedar, Stanton, Wayne	29 min
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Antelope, Knox, Pierce	49 min
Oct 4, 5:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Johnson, Nemaha, Pawnee	29 min
Oct 4, 5:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Antelope, Knox	38 min
Oct 4, 5:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OAX	Wayne	32 min
Oct 4, 5:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Otoe	23 min
Oct 4, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Cedar, Knox	23 min
Oct 4, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	OAX	Thurston	45 min
Oct 4, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Cass	27 min
Oct 4, 6:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	OAX	Thurston	41 min
Oct 4, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Cass	37 min
Oct 3, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Mills, Pottawattamie	22 min
Oct 4, 12:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Mills, Montgomery, Pottawattamie	46 min
Oct 4, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Mills, Pottawattamie	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.