Tornado Warning 17, NWS Omaha, NE

333 
WWUS53 KOAX 042213
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
513 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

NEC167-179-042223-
/O.EXP.KOAX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-131004T2215Z/
WAYNE NE-STANTON NE-
513 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND STANTON COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM.

LAT...LON 4213 9699 4184 9720 4187 9737 4196 9737
      4223 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 200DEG 26KT 4189 9731 

$$

FOBERT/CZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK COMING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CURRENT VW IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
PROFILE NETWORK DEPICTING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. STOUT DPVA IN THE MEANTIME HAS INDUCED
A DEEP SFC LOW CENTERED IN S-CNTRL NEB WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS...DOWN THRU CNTRL NEB...AND INTO WRN
KS.

AMPLE GULF MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DEPICTED BY
MORNING PRECIP WATER VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 200-225% OF NORM INVOF
LLVL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. ALSO NOTED FROM SFC OBS
IS DISTINCT DRY-LINE PUSHING INTO CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
DRY SLOT. DAY TIME HEATING WITHIN AREA OF CLEARING IS ALREADY
PUSHING MUCAPES TO AROUND 3000 J/K IN ERN KS...WITH RAP13 MUCAPES
PEAKING AROUND 5000 J/KG AND SHIFTING INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
ALL THIS HAS CULMINATED IN A MODERATE RISK TO BE ISSUED OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA.

THIS AFTN/EVENING...HRRR GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SFC LOW FROM CNTRL NEB
INTO ERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA WITH CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE BNDRY WHEN
SUFFICIENT HEATING EVENTUALLY ERODES ANY CAPPING. COMBINATION OF
SYSTEM DYNAMICS/FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CREATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...QUITE ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY BEST REVEALED BY RAP13
EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PROGS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 420
J/KG PHASING WITH BEST CAPE/MINIMUM CINH/ML LCL AND ML LFC. AT THIS
POINT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER 4PM JUST WEST OF THE MO RIVER...WITH QUICK INTENSIFICATION AS
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO WRN IA SOMETIME AROUND 6PM.

SAT/SUN MORNING...PRETTY GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA IN RESPONSE TO
WRAP AROUND MOIST/WAA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS. SUN
NIGHT/MON DRY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING THRU.

DEE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST DIFFERENTLY
IT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION...IT'S JUST FIGURING OUT IF ITS A
LITTLE QUICKER LIKE THE ECMWF...OR A LITTLE SLOWER LIKE THE GFS.
EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE MILD AND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACH THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS QUICKER AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
COMPROMISE...WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT IT COULD EASILY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
AS WELL.

DEWALD

&&

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF 20-23Z AT KOFK/KLNK AND 22-
01Z AT KOMA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE...FROM SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 22 KNOTS...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREAT AS WELL. ALL THIS IN
PART TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WITH STOUT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE...STORMS WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPING.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND PUSH EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN EARLY EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1103 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WNW BELLEVUE          41.18N 95.99W
10/04/2013  M3.54 INCH       SARPY              NE   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR AMOUNT

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE MILFORD           40.69N 97.01W
10/04/2013  M2.40 INCH       SALINE             NE   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR AMOUNT

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE COUNCIL BLUFFS    41.28N 95.84W
10/04/2013  M2.38 INCH       POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR AMOUNT

&&

J-E.KLISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
426 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

NEZ017-018-031-032-042200-
MADISON NE-STANTON NE-PIERCE NE-WAYNE NE-
426 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN STANTON...SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND WESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STANTON...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...WINSIDE...HOSKINS AND CARROLL.

 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4231 9708 4188 9721 4189 9742 4209 9740
      4209 9741 4210 9740 4233 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 183DEG 34KT 4196 9733

FOBERT