Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK COMING
TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CURRENT VW IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
PROFILE NETWORK DEPICTING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVING EAST. STOUT DPVA IN THE MEANTIME HAS INDUCED
A DEEP SFC LOW CENTERED IN S-CNTRL NEB WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS...DOWN THRU CNTRL NEB...AND INTO WRN
KS.

AMPLE GULF MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION DEPICTED BY
MORNING PRECIP WATER VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 200-225% OF NORM INVOF
LLVL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. ALSO NOTED FROM SFC OBS
IS DISTINCT DRY-LINE PUSHING INTO CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING
DRY SLOT. DAY TIME HEATING WITHIN AREA OF CLEARING IS ALREADY
PUSHING MUCAPES TO AROUND 3000 J/K IN ERN KS...WITH RAP13 MUCAPES
PEAKING AROUND 5000 J/KG AND SHIFTING INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN.
ALL THIS HAS CULMINATED IN A MODERATE RISK TO BE ISSUED OVER EXTREME
ERN NEB/WRN IA.

THIS AFTN/EVENING...HRRR GUIDANCE LIFTS THE SFC LOW FROM CNTRL NEB
INTO ERN SD LATER THIS EVENING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH INTO THE CWA WITH CONVECTION ERUPTING ALONG THE BNDRY WHEN
SUFFICIENT HEATING EVENTUALLY ERODES ANY CAPPING. COMBINATION OF
SYSTEM DYNAMICS/FRONTAL BNDRY WILL CREATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...QUITE ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY BEST REVEALED BY RAP13
EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY PROGS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 420
J/KG PHASING WITH BEST CAPE/MINIMUM CINH/ML LCL AND ML LFC. AT THIS
POINT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER 4PM JUST WEST OF THE MO RIVER...WITH QUICK INTENSIFICATION AS
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO WRN IA SOMETIME AROUND 6PM.

SAT/SUN MORNING...PRETTY GOOD MODELS AGREEMENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA IN RESPONSE TO
WRAP AROUND MOIST/WAA. THUS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS. SUN
NIGHT/MON DRY WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING THRU.

DEE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR EAST DIFFERENTLY
IT SHOULD STILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION...IT'S JUST FIGURING OUT IF ITS A
LITTLE QUICKER LIKE THE ECMWF...OR A LITTLE SLOWER LIKE THE GFS.
EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE MILD AND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS
ALSO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT APPROACH THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS QUICKER AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. AS A
COMPROMISE...WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT IT COULD EASILY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
AS WELL.

DEWALD

&&

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF 20-23Z AT KOFK/KLNK AND 22-
01Z AT KOMA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE...FROM SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 22 KNOTS...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
429 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREAT AS WELL. ALL THIS IN
PART TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WITH STOUT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE...STORMS WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPING.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND PUSH EAST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...THEN EARLY EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
536 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TORNADO          2 N CREIGHTON           42.49N 97.91W
10/04/2013                   KNOX               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND HEADING NORTH.

&&

RCHERMOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
537 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

NEZ068-090-091-042300-
JOHNSON NE-OTOE NE-NEMAHA NE-
537 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...OTOE AND
NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COOK...OR 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEATRICE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COOK...TALMAGE...DUNBAR...OTOE AND LORTON VILLAGE.

 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4040 9606 4046 9625 4075 9611 4066 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 209DEG 50KT 4049 9611

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
539 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TORNADO          2 SW WAYNE              42.22N 97.04W
10/04/2013                   WAYNE              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FARMHOUSE DESTROYED....COWS LOOSE RUNNING ALONG THE
            HWY...VEHICLE FLIPPED UPSIDE DOWN. NO REPORT YET IF
            ANYONE WAS HOME.

&&

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
553 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          5 N LYONS               42.01N 96.47W
10/04/2013                   BURT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

&&

MILLER

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