Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

STARTING TO SEE A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MO IN
RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVEL NW FLOW...COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN 850MB PROFILER AND WSR 88D
NETWORKS. MU CAPES LIFTED FROM AROUND 925MB PRODUCE INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALIZED
SEVERE TSTM WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES. LIKE
YESTERDAY...A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT
MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH SOME STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO TODAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOW PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH PROGGED ML CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000-3500 J/KG WITH A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING TSTM
WIND HAZARD POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE NEAR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES OR THE DIFFUSE FRONT
ITSELF.

FOR TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT)...THE SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...LIFT UP AND OVER THE SFC FRONT
INTO AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

SOME ONGOING WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL MOVE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES...THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS FRI. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS
THE GEM AND ECMWF. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PUSH A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP DOWN TO MVFR TO COVER THIS. WE HAVE ALSO
INSERTED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KJLN AND KBBG AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STREAM VEERS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS THEN ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
817 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
817 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
  ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
  COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
  AND INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX OF
  STORMS MATERIALIZES...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREAT WITH
  ANY STORMS OUTSIDE OF THIS COMPLEX WOULD BE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
  THE WORK WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A
  FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON
  THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
  STORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LIMITED
  THREAT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ057-230815-
MILLER MO-
247 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

AT 244 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AURORA SPRINGS...OR NEAR ELDON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELDON.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3843 9243 3842 9239 3834 9240 3834 9228
      3833 9226 3834 9222 3834 9218 3818 9220
      3812 9246 3831 9269 3835 9267 3835 9264
      3844 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 311DEG 19KT 3831 9253

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ055-068-230845-
BENTON MO-HICKORY MO-
301 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HICKORY AND SOUTHERN
BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 259 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF WHITAKERVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH
OF WARSAW...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN BENTON
AND NORTHEASTERN HICKORY COUNTIES.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE TRUMAN
LAKE.

PERSONS ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF
LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS TO BOATERS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...VERY
CHOPPY WATERS...HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIALLY BLINDING RAINS. DON'T BE CAUGHT OUT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM...BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

LAT...LON 3818 9305 3792 9307 3805 9350 3825 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 285DEG 25KT 3814 9336

HATCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ056>058-070-071-082-083-230915-
DENT MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-TEXAS MO-
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MORGAN...EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...MARIES...MILLER...NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...
NORTHERN DENT AND PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 313 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BARNETT TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF DEVIL'S ELBOW...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CROCKER...DIXON...DOOLITTLE...EASTERN FORT
LEONARD WOOD...ELDON...IBERIA...NEWBURG...ROLLA...SALEM...ST.
ROBERT...VIENNA AND WAYNESVILLE.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 192 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3844 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220
      3830 9218 3830 9185 3787 9152 3780 9152
      3780 9146 3758 9130 3757 9205 3851 9283
      3852 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 290DEG 19KT 3837 9262 3779 9203

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ068-080-230915-
HICKORY MO-DALLAS MO-
343 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKORY AND NORTHWESTERN DALLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 338 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HERMITAGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HERMITAGE...URBANA AND WHEATLAND.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE POMME DE
TERRE LAKE...POMME DE TERRE STATE PARK AND TRUMAN LAKE.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3799 9307 3793 9307 3791 9308 3790 9303
      3777 9308 3790 9349 3804 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 279DEG 19KT 3796 9332

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ094-230930-
LAWRENCE MO-
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL
430 AM CDT...

AT 348 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STOTTS CITY...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA...MARIONVILLE...MOUNT VERNON AND
VERONA.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 51 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3717 9362 3692 9363 3695 9406 3715 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 272DEG 11KT 3706 9391

HATCH