Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK KEEPING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE OR RIPPLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL RIDE DOWN THE FLOW LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING AN ENHANCED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. WILL
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF THE MIDDAY HOURS APPEAR TO
BE QUIET AND DRY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A
PUNCH AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT
RISK WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE IF NOT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK
VERY PLEASANT COMPARED TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY
STANDARDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. WE HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP DOWN TO MVFR TO COVER THIS. WE HAVE ALSO
INSERTED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KJLN AND KBBG AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STREAM VEERS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS THEN ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH FOR THIS SCENARIO...SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
817 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
817 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
  ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
  COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
  AND INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS COMPLEX OF
  STORMS MATERIALIZES...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREAT WITH
  ANY STORMS OUTSIDE OF THIS COMPLEX WOULD BE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
  THE WORK WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A
  FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON
  THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE
  STORMS FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LIMITED
  THREAT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
227 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ057-058-070-230815-
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PULASKI MO-
227 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PULASKI...SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER AND SOUTHWESTERN MARIES COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 224 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF IBERIA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
OSAGE BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CROCKER...DIXON AND IBERIA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 167
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3814 9205 3801 9197 3801 9202 3790 9202
      3781 9212 3808 9250 3822 9237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 309DEG 27KT 3808 9234

HATCH