Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THE AIRMASS HAD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OSAGE
PLAINS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. A DIFFUSE FRONT
AUGMENTED BY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

EXPECT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED.

THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS OF 30-35 KELVIN SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS
WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS
CONVECTION IF IT INDEED DOES DEVELOP WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON HOW THIS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO SALEM THROUGH 10 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL IMPINGE THE EXISTING BOUNDARY.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT THE RISK OF CONVECTION WILL END
FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. AN
OVERALL COOLER DAY IS ALSO IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OUT WEST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY BUT CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AROUND ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND ALL TERMINALS IN THE AREA. HAVE
CB AND VCTS MENTIONED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPO GROUPS AND
PROB30 COVERING THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA BY 09Z OVERNIGHT. VIS AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR
UNDER CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STARTING OFF WESTERLY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS INCLUDING SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO
  SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

  STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE
  STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN
  MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
  ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY
  NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
  WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     LIGHTNING        1 N WILLOW SPRINGS      37.01N 91.97W
07/23/2013                   HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE STRUCK DOWN BY LIGHTNING ALONG HIGHWAY 137. TIME
            ESTIMATED.OTHER TREES DOWN NEAR THIS LOCATION BUT UNKNOWN
            CAUSE AT THIS TIME.

&&

MTERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ069-081-232115-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LACLEDE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DECATURVILLE...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMDENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3791 9241 3782 9241 3771 9263 3796 9285
      3803 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 306DEG 13KT 3793 9270