Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

STARTING TO SEE A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MO IN
RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVEL NW FLOW...COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN 850MB PROFILER AND WSR 88D
NETWORKS. MU CAPES LIFTED FROM AROUND 925MB PRODUCE INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALIZED
SEVERE TSTM WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES. LIKE
YESTERDAY...A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT
MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION WITH SOME STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MO TODAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOW PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH PROGGED ML CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000-3500 J/KG WITH A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING TSTM
WIND HAZARD POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
BE NEAR LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES OR THE DIFFUSE FRONT
ITSELF.

FOR TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT)...THE SFC FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...LIFT UP AND OVER THE SFC FRONT
INTO AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

SOME ONGOING WEAKENING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WED
MORNING...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL MOVE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST OVER A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES...THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS FRI. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS
THE GEM AND ECMWF. A MODEL BLEND YIELDS FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PUSH A DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AROUND ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AROUND ALL TERMINALS IN THE AREA. HAVE
CB AND VCTS MENTIONED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPO GROUPS AND
PROB30 COVERING THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA BY 09Z OVERNIGHT. VIS AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR
UNDER CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STARTING OFF WESTERLY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
  AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
  LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
  THE OUTLOOK AREA.

  STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
  60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
  THESE STORMS.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN
  MANY AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
  EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
  REDEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY LATE
  THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
  INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
  EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

MOZ105-232030-
OZARK MO-
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UDALL...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAKERSFIELD AND UDALL.

LAT...LON 3651 9257 3659 9244 3658 9211 3649 9213
      3649 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 296DEG 10KT 3652 9227

GRIFFIN

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