Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
846 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE PROCEEDING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM UPDATING WILL BE REACTIVE
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY SPEAKING I EXPECT THE LINE
OF STORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND THE HRRR SLOWS THE LINE FURTHER OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION NOW PERCOLATING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS BEFORE BY 10Z AND IT MOVES EAST INTO
OUR AREA BY AROUND 12Z. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AM GOING TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA STARTING IMMEDIATELY AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM.  ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
COOLED AIR HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH
IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TONIGHT AND CONSEQUENTLY IT
WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  RAP SHOWS THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 06Z...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT LINE OF STORMS OVER WESTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR STILL FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES COULD FORM IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE THAT WESTERN MO LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SOUTHERN
MO...SO KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   STILL EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN MO ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MO TOWARD 12Z.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND DEEP
LAYER FLOW FAVORS TRAINING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR FRIDAY MORNING.  SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION IS STILL IN PLACE OVER
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRYING TREND
BY AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...THE LOW LEVEL JET REFOCUSES
BACK OVER NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA STARTING
ABOUT 12Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...SPREADING INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS PROBABLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50-60KTS SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SHOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. WHATEVER'S LEFT OF THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WIPED AWAY.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR
STAYING ABOVE 50KTS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP AND COPIOUS CAPE WE SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN
TORNADOES WITH THE LINE. THE LINE SHOULD PROGRESS AT A MODERATE
PACE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. OF COURSE
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND IT'S LIKELY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EITHER EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWFA.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS THE COLUMBIA AREA...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY KICKS INTO
GEAR AND HEADS EAST.  SPC STILL HAS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
IN A SLIGHT RISK SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-44/I-55 CORRIDORS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
AND CONTROL THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY IN PUSHING
THE HIGH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TUESDAY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIP LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE GFS IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE ECMWF
AND THEREFORE CRANKS OUT A LOT MORE PRECIP.  HAVE OPTED TO JUST
STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD RIGHT NOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE POPS AS NEEDED IF BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE...THOUGH
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHTING MAY LAST AT ANY ONE AIRPORT FOR UP TO 4
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER CORES WHERE
THEY MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE SOME STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECT TO THE EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MO
LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT WILL AFFECT KCOU
AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RECENT REPORT OF WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL PASS NEAR THE AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. THIS STORM IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
     MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF OVER AN INCH OR ANY
FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

CARNEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
925 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W MEXICO              39.17N  91.89W
05/30/2013  M1.82 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

&&

CARNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
927 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILZ070-310245-
MARION IL-
927 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

AT 926 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STEPHEN FORBES STATION...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALEM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY.

TILLY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILZ059-099-MOZ061-310400-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-ST. CHARLES MO-
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES...
SOUTHWESTERN MACOUPIN AND EASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1024 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORTAGE DES SIOUX...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FLORISSANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  JERSEYVILLE...
  BRIGHTON...
  SHIPMAN...
  KEMPER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY