Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS St. Louis, MO

280 
WWUS53 KLSX 310015
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
715 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILC119-310025-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-130531T0030Z/
MADISON IL-
715 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3900 9009 3901 9046 3917 9046 3918 9031
      3922 9031 3923 9020 3926 9021 3926 9019
      3926 9015 3923 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 199DEG 42KT 3915 9032

$$

ILC083-117-310030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-130531T0030Z/
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
715 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MACOUPIN AND EASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 714 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JERSEYVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHIPMAN...KEMPER...PIASA...FIDELITY AND MEDORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9009 3901 9046 3917 9046 3918 9031
      3922 9031 3923 9020 3926 9021 3926 9019
      3926 9015 3923 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 199DEG 42KT 3915 9032

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TILLY

104 
WWUS53 KLSX 310024
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
724 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILC083-117-310034-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-130531T0030Z/
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
724 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MACOUPIN AND
EASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.

LAT...LON 3900 9009 3901 9046 3917 9046 3918 9031
      3922 9031 3923 9020 3926 9021 3926 9019
      3926 9015 3923 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 200DEG 46KT 3926 9023

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM.  ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
COOLED AIR HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH
IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TONIGHT AND CONSEQUENTLY IT
WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  RAP SHOWS THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 06Z...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT LINE OF STORMS OVER WESTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR STILL FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES COULD FORM IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE THAT WESTERN MO LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SOUTHERN
MO...SO KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   STILL EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN MO ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MO TOWARD 12Z.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND DEEP
LAYER FLOW FAVORS TRAINING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR FRIDAY MORNING.  SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION IS STILL IN PLACE OVER
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRYING TREND
BY AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...THE LOW LEVEL JET REFOCUSES
BACK OVER NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA STARTING
ABOUT 12Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...SPREADING INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS PROBABLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50-60KTS SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SHOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. WHATEVER'S LEFT OF THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WIPED AWAY.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR
STAYING ABOVE 50KTS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP AND COPIOUS CAPE WE SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN
TORNADOES WITH THE LINE. THE LINE SHOULD PROGRESS AT A MODERATE
PACE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. OF COURSE
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND IT'S LIKELY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EITHER EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWFA.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS THE COLUMBIA AREA...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY KICKS INTO
GEAR AND HEADS EAST.  SPC STILL HAS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
IN A SLIGHT RISK SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-44/I-55 CORRIDORS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
AND CONTROL THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY IN PUSHING
THE HIGH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TUESDAY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIP LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE GFS IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE ECMWF
AND THEREFORE CRANKS OUT A LOT MORE PRECIP.  HAVE OPTED TO JUST
STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD RIGHT NOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE POPS AS NEEDED IF BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE...THOUGH
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHTING MAY LAST AT ANY ONE AIRPORT FOR UP TO 4
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER CORES WHERE
THEY MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE SOME STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECT TO THE EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MO
LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT WILL AFFECT KCOU
AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RECENT REPORT OF WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL PASS NEAR THE AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. THIS STORM IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON
     MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE
     MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MONROE IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF OVER AN INCH OR ANY
FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             SHILOH                  38.55N  89.91W
05/30/2013  E0.70 INCH       ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 2 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS ALSO BLOWN DOWN

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. ANN                 38.73N  90.39W
05/30/2013                   ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX INCH DIAMTER TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARISSA                 38.26N  89.75W
05/30/2013                   ST. CLAIR          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL MEDIUM TO LARGE TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN -
            SHINGLES FROM ROOFS FROM FOUR HOMES WERE REMOVED.

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW HAZELWOOD         38.76N  90.37W
05/30/2013  M53 MPH          ST. LOUIS          MO   ASOS

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. MARY                37.88N  89.95W
05/30/2013                   STE. GENEVIEVE     MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE SPLIT OFF WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER
            LIMBS DOWN.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
700 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CREVE COEUR             38.66N  90.44W
05/30/2013                   ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE 3 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN CREVE
            COEUR

&&

JP