River Flood Warning 159, NWS St. Louis, MO

572 
WGUS83 KLSX 311609
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY  

  NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING  

  MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING 

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR 

  NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA 

  MID FORK SALT RIVER NEAR HOLLIDAY
 

.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND 0.75-1.75 INCHES FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC113-011609-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0159.000000T0000Z-130603T0430Z/
/TRYM7.1.ER.130531T1200Z.130601T1200Z.130602T0430Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 24.2 FEET SATURDAY
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 23.2 FEET...GRAVENS ROAD BEGINS FLOODING NORTH OF 
  HIGHWAY C.
* IMPACT...AT 23.1 FEET...WATER BEGINS COVERING FRENCHMAN BLUFF ROAD 
  (COUNTY ROAD 658) JUST WEST OF THE CUIVRE RIVER BRIDGE.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...CONSIDERABLE AGRICULTURAL LAND IS FLOODED 
  BETWEEN TROY AND MOSCOW MILLS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090


$$

MOC111-011609-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0135.000000T0000Z-130603T2200Z/
/EWNM7.3.ER.130526T0311Z.130531T1800Z.130602T2200Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 19.8 FEET THIS
  AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4012 9175 4014 9169 3995 9152 3991 9154


$$

MOC111-011608-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0134.000000T0000Z-130604T0051Z/
/EWMM7.2.ER.130525T2301Z.130530T2215Z.130603T0051Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER NEAR EWING
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY TO NEAR 16.9
  FEET SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE RIVER MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN IF FUTURE
  RAINFALL IS HEAVIER THAN FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 17.8 FEET...OLIVE AVENUE (LEWIS COUNTY ROAD 587) NORTH 
  OF MAYWOOD BEGINS FLOODING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4010 9179 4012 9175 3995 9158 3994 9162


$$

MOC127-011608-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-130604T0243Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.130527T1728Z.130529T1130Z.130603T0243Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL 14.3 FEET SATURDAY
  MORNING. HOWEVER...THE RIVER MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN IF FUTURE RAINFALL IS
  HEAVIER THAN FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 14.7 FEET...CORNFIELD JUST SOUTH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
  COUNTY ROAD 315 BRIDGE AT THE GAGE BEGINS TO FLOOD.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172 3989 9176


$$

MOC127-011608-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0158.130531T2107Z-130602T1424Z/
/PALM7.1.ER.130531T2107Z.130601T0000Z.130601T1424Z.NO/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NORTH RIVER AT PALMYRA
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CREST NEAR 15.3 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES
  ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...MARION COUNTY RD 341 NORTH OF PALMYRA 
  INUNDATED. SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING...RIGHT BANK.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 333, EAST OF PALMYRA, BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3984 9150 3981 9150 3976 9170 3979 9170


$$

MOC137-011608-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0144.000000T0000Z-130604T1200Z/
/PMZM7.1.ER.130528T1845Z.130529T1830Z.130603T1000Z.UU/
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MID FORK SALT RIVER NEAR HOLLIDAY
* UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 17.4 FEET SATURDAY MORNING
  BEFORE RISING ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 18.0 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES
  ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...WASTEWATER LIFT STATION BEGINS FLOODING AT 
  ABOUT THIS HEIGHT.  WATER WAS 16 FT DEEP IN JULY 2008.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3957 9229 3959 9225 3950 9197 3947 9199 3952 9221


$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/01  06/02  06/03  06/04  06/05

CUIVRE RIVER
  TROY            21.0   22.23      24.2   18.1   11.4    9.0    8.1

NORTH FABIUS RIVER
  EWING           11.0   19.77      16.7   12.6    8.9    7.5    6.5

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
  EWING           12.0   17.79      16.9   13.8   10.9    9.1    7.0

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           9.5   14.41      14.3   12.1    7.7    5.1    4.3

NORTH RIVER
  PALMYRA         13.0   10.69      13.4    9.4    6.9    6.0    5.6

SALT RIVER
  HOLLIDAY        17.0   18.81      17.4   18.0   16.8   10.2    8.1

215 
WGUS43 KLSX 010253
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
953 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...


  CUIVRE RIVER 

     NEAR TROY...AFFECTING LINCOLN COUNTY


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 2.00-2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL THE 
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH UP TO 1.00 INCH FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION 
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC113-020253-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0159.000000T0000Z-130603T1422Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.130531T1200Z.130601T1200Z.130602T1422Z.NO/
953 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 28.5 FEET...VEHICLE STORAGE LOT STARTS FLOODING ON THE 
  NORTH END OF TROPICANA VILLAGE MOBILE HOME PARK IN MOSCOW MILLS.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...NEAR THIS HEIGHT, MODOT WILL CONSIDER 
  CLOSING U.S. HIGHWAY 61 AT THE CUIVRE RIVER BRIDGE NORTH OF TROY IN
  BOTH DIRECTIONS.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS...SIGNIFICANT 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND IS INUNDATED.
* IMPACT...AT 24.8 FEET...NEAR THIS HEIGHT...SECOND STREET IN MOSCOW 
  MILLS BEGINS FLOODING NEAR THE BYRD STREET INTERSECTION.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090


$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/01  06/02  06/03  06/04  06/05

CUIVRE RIVER
  TROY            21.0   24.35      28.0   22.7   11.1    8.8    8.0

268 
WGUS83 KLSX 011638
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  CUIVRE RIVER 

      NEAR TROY  

      OLD MONROE 


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND BACKWATER
EFFECTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SPECIFICALLY AT OLD MONROE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN 
PREDICTED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS 
CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC113-021638-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0159.000000T0000Z-130603T1550Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.130531T1200Z.130601T1800Z.130602T1550Z.NO/
1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 11:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY CRESTING NEAR 27.9 FEET AND IS FORECAST
  TO FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 28.0 FEET...NEAR THIS HEIGHT, MODOT WILL CONSIDER 
  CLOSING U.S. HIGHWAY 61 AT THE CUIVRE RIVER BRIDGE NORTH OF TROY IN
  BOTH DIRECTIONS.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090


$$

MOC113-021637-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.3.ER.130528T1430Z.130602T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER AT OLD MONROE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  5:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 32.5 EARLY SUNDAY
  MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE.
* IMPACT...AT 31.8 FEET...OLD HIGHWAY 79 FLOODS BETWEEN OLD MONROE AND
  HIGHWAY 79.
* IMPACT...AT 31.2 FEET...LOW STEEL ON THE BNSF RAILROAD BRIDGE IS 
  REACHED.
* IMPACT...AT 30.8 FEET...THE CORNER OF SYCAMORE ST. AND FIRST STREET 
  IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS.  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING
  IN OLD MONROE.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061 3876 9062


$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/02  06/03  06/04  06/05  06/06

CUIVRE RIVER
  TROY            21.0   27.85      23.5   11.1    8.8    8.0    7.6
  OLD MONROE      24.0   29.60      32.5   31.3   29.8   29.6   29.4

973 
WGUS83 KLSX 020137
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
837 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  CUIVRE RIVER 


     NEAR TROY

     AT OLD MONROE 


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH 
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS 
AND BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SPECIFICALLY 
AT OLD MONROE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND ISSUE 
FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC113-030137-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0159.000000T0000Z-130603T1523Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.130531T1200Z.130601T1815Z.130602T1523Z.NO/
837 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090


$$

MOC113-030136-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0146.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.3.ER.130528T1430Z.130602T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
837 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER AT OLD MONROE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  5:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.6 FEET BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 31.8 FEET...OLD HIGHWAY 79 FLOODS BETWEEN OLD MONROE AND
  HIGHWAY 79.
* IMPACT...AT 31.2 FEET...LOW STEEL ON THE BNSF RAILROAD BRIDGE IS 
  REACHED.
* IMPACT...AT 30.8 FEET...THE CORNER OF SYCAMORE ST. AND FIRST STREET 
  IS FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS.  RESIDENTIAL FLOODING
  IN OLD MONROE.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061 3876 9062


$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/02  06/03  06/04  06/05  06/06

CUIVRE RIVER
  TROY            21.0   27.01      23.2   11.1    8.9    8.0    7.7
  OLD MONROE      24.0   29.60      32.6   31.2   29.4   28.9   28.4

181 
WGUS83 KLSX 021731
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN
MISSOURI...

 
  CUIVRE RIVER NEAR

    TROY

  SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR

    TAYLOR


.THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC113-021801-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0159.000000T0000Z-130603T1523Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.130531T1200Z.130601T1815Z.130602T1243Z.NO/
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CUIVRE RIVER NEAR TROY.
* AT 12 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 7:45 AM SUNDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 8 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090

$$

MOC127-021801-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0142.000000T0000Z-130603T2010Z/
/TAYM7.2.ER.130527T1728Z.130529T1130Z.130602T1607Z.NO/
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR TAYLOR.
* AT 11:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11 AM SUNDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL TO NEAR 4 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3993 9160 3990 9152 3984 9160 3984 9172 3989 9176

$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/03  06/04  06/05  06/06  06/07

CUIVRE RIVER
  TROY            21.0   17.93      11.2    8.8    8.0    7.6    7.4

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
  TAYLOR           9.5    9.35       6.3    4.5    4.0    3.8    3.7

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
846 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE PROCEEDING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM UPDATING WILL BE REACTIVE
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY SPEAKING I EXPECT THE LINE
OF STORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND THE HRRR SLOWS THE LINE FURTHER OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE
CONVECTION NOW PERCOLATING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS BEFORE BY 10Z AND IT MOVES EAST INTO
OUR AREA BY AROUND 12Z. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AM GOING TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA STARTING IMMEDIATELY AND
CONTINUING TO 12Z SATURDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM.  ATMOSPHERE OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW
COOLED AIR HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH
IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT TONIGHT AND CONSEQUENTLY IT
WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS.  RAP SHOWS THIS
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 06Z...SO CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT LINE OF STORMS OVER WESTERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR STILL FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES COULD FORM IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE THAT WESTERN MO LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER
THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THE LINE WILL LIKELY STALL OVER SOUTHERN
MO...SO KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.   STILL EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN MO ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MO TOWARD 12Z.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FOCUS
OVER THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES
HAVE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND DEEP
LAYER FLOW FAVORS TRAINING TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FOR FRIDAY MORNING.  SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION IS STILL IN PLACE OVER
THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DRYING TREND
BY AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. THEN...THE LOW LEVEL JET REFOCUSES
BACK OVER NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA STARTING
ABOUT 12Z AND RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...SPREADING INTO
NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS PROBABLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING WITH MUCAPE EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50-60KTS SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
SHOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AS ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. WHATEVER'S LEFT OF THE CAP WILL ALSO BE WIPED AWAY.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR
STAYING ABOVE 50KTS. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DISCRETE STORMS
INITIALLY...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP AND COPIOUS CAPE WE SHOULD
SEE THE STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT ANY KIND OF
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN
TORNADOES WITH THE LINE. THE LINE SHOULD PROGRESS AT A MODERATE
PACE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. OF COURSE
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND IT'S LIKELY THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED EITHER EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THE REST OF THE CWFA.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS THE COLUMBIA AREA...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY KICKS INTO
GEAR AND HEADS EAST.  SPC STILL HAS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
IN A SLIGHT RISK SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA AND POINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-44/I-55 CORRIDORS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
AND CONTROL THE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.  EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY IN PUSHING
THE HIGH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TUESDAY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PRINT OUT PRECIP LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE GFS IS MUCH MORE DYNAMIC WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE ECMWF
AND THEREFORE CRANKS OUT A LOT MORE PRECIP.  HAVE OPTED TO JUST
STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD RIGHT NOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE POPS AS NEEDED IF BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE...THOUGH
RAIN WITH SOME LIGHTING MAY LAST AT ANY ONE AIRPORT FOR UP TO 4
HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER CORES WHERE
THEY MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE SOME STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECT TO THE EAST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES. EXPECT
THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STILL EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MO
LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT WILL AFFECT KCOU
AND THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF SITES WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RECENT REPORT OF WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL PASS NEAR THE AIRPORT WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR. THIS STORM IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A LINE OF STORMS
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
     MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
     MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
343 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS
ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALLS OF OVER AN INCH OR ANY
FLOODING THAT THEY OBSERVE.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
736 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S TAYLOR SPRINGS      39.04N  89.50W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FOOT DIAMETER WALNUT TREE UPROOTED.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
752 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILLSBORO               39.16N  89.48W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW LARGE TREES WERE DOWN IN THE HILLSBORO IL AREA.
            ONE TREE FELL ON TOP OF A VEHICLE.

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
757 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N HILLSBORO           39.26N  89.48W
05/30/2013                   MONTGOMERY         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS 6 TO 8 INCHES WERE DOWN 7
            MILES NORTH OF HILLSBORO IL

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
805 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              38.89N  89.40W
05/30/2013                   BOND               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN...AND A FEW LIMBS
            MEASURING 6 TO 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
849 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GIRARD                  39.45N  89.78W
05/30/2013                   MACOUPIN           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES ARE DOWN FROM THE WEST OF SIDE
            GIRARD TO 5.0 MILES WEST OF GIRARD.

&&

PRZYBYLINSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
855 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

MOZ062-072-073-310245-
CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-WASHINGTON MO-
855 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 852 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOURBON TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STEELVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SULLIVAN...
  ANTHONIES MILL...
  ST. CLAIR...
  UNION...
  VILLA RIDGE...
  GRAY SUMMIT...
  PACIFIC...
  PARKWAY...
  RICHWOODS...
  LONEDELL...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY