Tornado Warning 18, NWS Chicago, IL

734 
WWUS53 KLOT 171853
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC031-197-INC089-171930-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-131117T1930Z/
WILL IL-COOK IL-LAKE IN-
1253 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND CENTRAL WILL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1251 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKFORT...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARVEY AND PHOENIX AROUND 100 PM CST.
  DOLTON AND BURNHAM AROUND 105 PM CST.
  WHITING AND EAST CHICAGO AROUND 110 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE EAST HAZEL CREST AND
RIVERDALE.

  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4135 8782 4147 8792 4175 8753 4171 8752
      4169 8749 4168 8745 4169 8743 4168 8741
      4165 8742 4163 8733 4162 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 228DEG 53KT 4152 8778

OEMC ZONES 10...11 AND 12.

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

BMD

676 
WWUS53 KLOT 171923
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
123 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC031-197-171933-
/O.CAN.KLOT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-131117T1930Z/
WILL IL-COOK IL-
123 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.


...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND CENTRAL WILL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4148 8752 4171 8752 4168 8747 4168 8745
      4169 8743 4168 8742 4168 8741 4166 8743
      4165 8742 4163 8733 4162 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 252DEG 38KT 4162 8731

$$

INC089-171930-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-131117T1930Z/
LAKE IN-
123 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM CST...

AT 118 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GARY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 8752 4171 8752 4168 8747 4168 8745
      4169 8743 4168 8742 4168 8741 4166 8743
      4165 8742 4163 8733 4162 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 252DEG 38KT 4162 8731

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

RATZER

750 
WWUS53 KLOT 171931
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
131 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

INC089-171941-
/O.EXP.KLOT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-131117T1930Z/
LAKE IN-
131 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST.

LAT...LON 4148 8752 4171 8752 4168 8747 4168 8745
      4169 8743 4168 8742 4168 8741 4166 8743
      4165 8742 4163 8733 4162 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 252DEG 38KT 4162 8731

$$

RATZER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1240 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.RADAR UPDATE...
1240 PM CDT

HAVE SEEN A DEBRIS BALL SIGNATURE ON REFLECTIVITY AND CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT WITH THE SUPERCELL IN WILL COUNTY. THE NEXT
SCAN...WHICH IS THE MOST RECENT AT 1836Z...HAS APPEARED TO HAVE A
SURGE ONCE AGAIN IN THE OUTFLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS. VERY HIGH
VELOCITIES ARE SEEN WITH THIS AREA DESPITE AT A PRETTY POOR RADAR
ANGLE.

RADAR SIGNATURES FOR THE STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IL ARE SHOWING VELOCITY FINGERS AND BACKSIDE REFLECTIVITY
DRYING VERY EVIDENT OF STRONG WINDS. ESTIMATES OF 70 MPH WINDS
HAVE COME IN FROM THE AMBOY AREA WITH THESE STORMS.

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1220 PM CDT

STORM ENTERING WILL COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF BEING MORE
REAR-FLANK DOWNDRAFT DOMINANT...HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF TRYING TO DEVELOP PERSISTENT INFLOW AND A ROTATION ON ITS
LEADING EDGE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND HISTORY WITH THIS
STORM...HAVE FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A TORNADO WARNING INTO WILL
COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN A REPORT FROM GRUNDY COUNTY OF DEBRIS
FALLING FROM THE AIR WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY...SO A TORNADO COULD
BE ONGOING.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH A 69 KT GUST AT STERLING. THE LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IMMEDIATELY WITH THIS FRONT AND GIVEN THE LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT...HE VERY HIGH WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE APPEAR TO BE TAPPED. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS A WAYS EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA PACKING A SIMILAR WIND PUNCH...BUT AT LEAST
PRODUCE WINDS OF 45 MPH PLUS THE ENTIRE WAY.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...
304 AM CST

HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
150 KT UPPER JET DIGGING DOWN ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SAME TIME A
SUB TROPICAL JET OF AROUND 120 KT IS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WI ONE WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A HINT OF ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE WITH IT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CATCHES UP WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILS FOR TODAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. STEADY ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK KEEPING
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND GUSTS WITH THE PRECIP THUS FAR WITH INTENSITY HAVING WANED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SOME PULSEY CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCT-BKN SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WORKING
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE SYNOPTIC NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING CAN OCCUR AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING AND GENERATION OF WIND GUSTS THAT COULD TOP 50 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS BACK TOWARDS THE MENDOTA AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
UPGRADED THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING...WHILE STILL
DEEPENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BUT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 RANGE BY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP
DROP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS PERHAPS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 20S...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
MAY LEVEL OFF AT SOME POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 50S COULD BE REACHED
THUS TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A SLOWER
TIMING COULD MEAN WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER VERY STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH END TIME OF PRECIP ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM THIS
DISTANCE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF
MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...ITS DIFFICULT
TO LOWER OR RAISE POPS FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. THUS HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KT BECOMING MORE
  WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 45KT BY 21Z.

* PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
  SEVERE...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOWEST VIS AROUND
  1SM.

* MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS ORD/DPA/RFD AT THIS
HOUR...WITH MDW/GYY EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THUNDER IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO AN HOUR. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWEST
VIS/CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ORD/MDW/GYY THE
LIKELY TERMINALS TO OBSERVE THESE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AREA WIDE
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH RFD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND THE REMAINING
TERMINALS IN THE 2-3 HOURS...WITH THE PRECIP BECOMING LESS
PREVAILING AFTER FROPA AS WELL AS CEILINGS IMPROVING.
ALTHOUGH...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER FROPA AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45KT. THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING...WHILE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING/VSBY TRENDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RASN. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

&&

.MARINE...
142 AM CST

...STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH 2/3 OF LAKE MI LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
POWERHOUSE STORM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LAKE. A LARGE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. NORTH PART
OF THE LAKE MAY SEE SOME NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE FOR THE NORTH. GALES WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEARSHORE...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO GALES THIS EVENING...SO A SHORTER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ALLSOPP

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8
     PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 2 PM
     SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...8 PM
     SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
     8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
181500-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /950 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE...
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
   TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...DAMAGING AND LONG TRACKED.
   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFFECT
  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...VERY DAMAGING...AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN EVANSTON TO
MENDOTA LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NORTH OF THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

LMZ740>745-181500-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BACK TO GALES
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181500-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1218 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     TSTM WND GST     LISLE                   41.79N 88.09W
11/17/2013  M58 MPH          DUPAGE             IL   PUBLIC

            LEASK LANE NEAR MORTON ARBORETUM. HAD SOME DAMAGE.

1212 AM     TSTM WND GST     MAZON                   41.24N 88.42W
11/17/2013  E70 MPH          GRUNDY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HAD MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1224 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROSELLE                 41.98N 88.08W
11/17/2013  E70 MPH          DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1220 PM     TORNADO          BRACEVILLE              41.22N 88.27W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IL-113 AT WILL/GRUNDY COUNTY LINE.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1229 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     TORNADO          WILMINGTON              41.30N 88.16W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT IL-53 AND WILMINGTON AND PEOTONE ROAD.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1231 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIAMOND                 41.29N 88.26W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSES DAMAGED ON LOWELL LANE.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COAL CITY               41.29N 88.28W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DESTROYED AT SPRING AND BERTA.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1239 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIAMOND                 41.29N 88.26W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSES DAMAGED ON LAURA LANE.

&&

BN