High Wind Warning 1, NWS Chicago, IL

633 
WWUS73 KLOT 171654
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1054 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ013-014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-180100-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...
MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...
VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER
1054 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /1154 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
  THEN BECOME WESTERLY BY EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
  PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH 
  ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN 
  THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASE LATER THIS 
  EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH COULD BLOW DOWN TREE LIMBS AND 
  POWER LINES...AND COULD CAUSE MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO 
  BUILDINGS. WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR 
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ003>006-008-010>012-180100-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA
1054 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
  THEN BECOME WESTERLY BY EARLY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
  PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE 
  EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD IN THE MID TO LATE 
  AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASE 
  LATER THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...BE CERTAIN THAT ANY LOOSE ITEMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH 
  WINDS ARE SECURED. WINDS MAY ADVERSELY IMPACT HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

LENNING

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

550 
WWUS73 KLOT 172209
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
409 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ013-014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-180200-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...
MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...
VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER
409 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /509 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/
THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH
  THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW GUSTS COULD EVEN BE AS HIGH AS
  60 MPH...ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
  EASE LATER THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH COULD BLOW DOWN TREE LIMBS AND 
  POWER LINES...AND COULD CAUSE MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO 
  BUILDINGS. WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR 
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ003>006-008-010>012-180200-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA
409 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 45 AND 50
  MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASE LATER
  THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...BE CERTAIN THAT ANY LOOSE ITEMS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH 
  WINDS ARE SECURED. WINDS MAY ADVERSELY IMPACT HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

KJB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

852 
WWUS73 KLOT 180200
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
800 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


ILZ013-014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-180300-
/O.EXP.KLOT.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...
MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...
VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER
800 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /900 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST /9 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING...

WINDS CONTINUE TO ABATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

$$

ILZ003>006-008-010>012-180300-
/O.EXP.KLOT.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-131118T0200Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA
800 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS CONTINUE TO ABATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS EVENING..

$$

KJB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
304 AM CST

HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
150 KT UPPER JET DIGGING DOWN ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SAME TIME A
SUB TROPICAL JET OF AROUND 120 KT IS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WI ONE WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A HINT OF ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE WITH IT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CATCHES UP WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILS FOR TODAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. STEADY ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK KEEPING
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND GUSTS WITH THE PRECIP THUS FAR WITH INTENSITY HAVING WANED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SOME PULSEY CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCT-BKN SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WORKING
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE SYNOPTIC NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING CAN OCCUR AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING AND GENERATION OF WIND GUSTS THAT COULD TOP 50 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS BACK TOWARDS THE MENDOTA AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
UPGRADED THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING...WHILE STILL
DEEPENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BUT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 RANGE BY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP
DROP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS PERHAPS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 20S...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
MAY LEVEL OFF AT SOME POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 50S COULD BE REACHED
THUS TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A SLOWER
TIMING COULD MEAN WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER VERY STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH END TIME OF PRECIP ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM THIS
DISTANCE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF
MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...ITS DIFFICULT
TO LOWER OR RAISE POPS FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. THUS HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP RESULTING IN VFR NEXT FEW HOURS.

* IFR POSSIBLY RETURNING LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT EASING TO AROUND 20 KT EARLY THIS
  MORNING...THEN INCREASING THROUGH MIDDAY AND TURNING SOUTHWEST.
  GUSTS INCREASE TO 40 KT EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN POTENTIALLY NEAR
  50 KT MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

* TSRA CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD 10Z...THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE
  MORNING. PEAK TSRA PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH SEVERE
  STORMS POSSIBLE.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT THIS STRATUS HAS BEEN
ERODING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MIX OF VFR CIGS UPSTREAM...WITH
SOME MVFR AS WELL. EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS WILL AT LEAST SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS LASTING FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WILL BE REACHING THE TERMINALS TOWARD 9/10Z OR
S0...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM CHICAGO WEST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING OR SO AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOWERING CIGS SO WILL RETAIN IFR FROM PREVIOUS
TAFS AS IT MAY DEVELOP MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD.

ONCE THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP MOVES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS BY MID
MORNING OR SO MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERING MAY OCCUR RELATIVE TO THE
LATEST TAFS SO VFR IS A POSSIBILITY. THE KANSAS SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING WHICH WILL
QUICKLY WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE TIMING
OF THE WORST TSRA CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND STEADILY
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN WEST DURING THE
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH 40 KT GUSTS LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT GUSTS FOR
A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SCATTERING NEXT FEW HOURS...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE IMPROVEMENT MAY LAST.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR RETURNING AND TIMING OF RETURN.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
  REACHING 40 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 50 KT POTENTIAL AT LEAST
  FOR A SHORT TIME.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING
  WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DETAILS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
  MOST PROBABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL 17-21Z.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA AT NGT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE SHRA DURING THE DAY AND RASN AT
NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
142 AM CST

...STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH 2/3 OF LAKE MI LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
POWERHOUSE STORM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LAKE. A LARGE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. NORTH PART
OF THE LAKE MAY SEE SOME NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE FOR THE NORTH. GALES WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEARSHORE...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO GALES THIS EVENING...SO A SHORTER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ALLSOPP

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...10 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012...10 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...10 AM
     SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 2 PM
     SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...8 PM
     SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM
     SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
172145-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
343 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013 /443 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SUNDAY...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
    HEAVY RAIN.
    AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER
  MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
  PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
  TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST
  AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS. SOME
  POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME
  SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY...WITH MANY OF THE STORMS PROBABLY BECOMING
SEVERE. THE EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WOULD PROVIDE AN EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AS
WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES...INCLUDING SOME THREAT FOR A STRONG
DAMAGING TORNADO. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EXTREMELY RAPIDLY ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY AT 65 MPH OR GREATER.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 45 MPH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

&&

LMZ740>745-172145-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
343 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INDIANA WATERS.

HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-172145-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
343 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE.

&&

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO