Tornado Warning 15, NWS Chicago, IL

495 
WWUS53 KLOT 171724
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC099-105-171800-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-131117T1800Z/
LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1117 AM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR METAMORA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
   COUNTY LINE JUST NORTH OF MINONK AROUND 1135 AM CST.
   RUTLAND AROUND 1135 AM CST.
   DANA AROUND 1140 AM CST.
   LONG POINT AROUND 1145 AM CST.
   STREATOR AROUND 1155 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 8894 4092 8894 4092 8905 4110 8905
      4110 8916 4112 8917 4128 8896 4096 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 234DEG 46KT 4082 8923


TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BMD

414 
WWUS53 KLOT 171738
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1138 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC099-105-171800-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-131117T1800Z/
LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
1138 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1133 AM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RUTLAND AND 
DANA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG POINT AROUND 1145 AM CST.  
  STREATOR AROUND 1155 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8863 4088 8894 4092 8894 4092 8905
      4103 8905 4119 8885 4103 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 234DEG 46KT 4093 8902


TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BMD

630 
WWUS53 KLOT 171739
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1139 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC099-105-171800-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-131117T1800Z/
LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
1139 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1138 AM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR DANA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
         BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
         VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING
         DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO
         BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG POINT 1145 AM CST.
  STREATOR AROUND 1155 AM CST.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8863 4088 8894 4092 8894 4092 8905
      4103 8905 4119 8885 4103 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 234DEG 46KT 4095 8898


TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BMD

847 
WWUS53 KLOT 171751
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1151 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC099-105-171800-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-131117T1800Z/
LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
1151 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1147 AM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF STREATOR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
         BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
         VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING
         DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO
         BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  STREATOR AROUND 1155 AM CST.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 8863 4093 8883 4105 8895 4119 8885
      4103 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 234DEG 46KT 4103 8883


TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BMD

990 
WWUS53 KLOT 171802
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1202 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC099-105-171811-
/O.EXP.KLOT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-131117T1800Z/
LA SALLE IL-LIVINGSTON IL-
1202 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LA SALLE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. HOWEVER A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN 
LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHEAST LASALLE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM CST. 

LAT...LON 4099 8863 4093 8883 4105 8895 4119 8885
      4103 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 234DEG 46KT 4103 8881

$$

BMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1056 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1055 AM CST

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN IL
WITH THE CWA FULL ENTRENCHED IN THE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR.
CONVECTIVE MODE CONTINUES TO BE QUICKLY DEVELOPING CELLS WITH
EMBEDDED ROTATION. WHILE MANY CELLS ARE NOT TRULY DISCRETE THEY
ARE MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. ANTICIPATED THAT MORE
TRULY DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS
WHERE THE RAP IS CONTINUING TO KEEP 0-1KM SHEAR AT 35-45 KT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING THERE. THE CHICAGO AREA IS INCLUDED IN THIS.
ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THESE DISCRETE CELLS IN THE ILX CWA.
MOVEMENT WILL BE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CHICAGO AREA STILL
LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12PM- 3PM. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST TOWARD ROCKFORD THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS HIGH
EVEN WITH DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH PRIMARY THREATS WINDS
AND TORNADOES.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...
304 AM CST

HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
150 KT UPPER JET DIGGING DOWN ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SAME TIME A
SUB TROPICAL JET OF AROUND 120 KT IS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WI ONE WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A HINT OF ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE WITH IT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CATCHES UP WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILS FOR TODAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. STEADY ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK KEEPING
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND GUSTS WITH THE PRECIP THUS FAR WITH INTENSITY HAVING WANED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SOME PULSEY CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCT-BKN SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WORKING
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE SYNOPTIC NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING CAN OCCUR AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING AND GENERATION OF WIND GUSTS THAT COULD TOP 50 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS BACK TOWARDS THE MENDOTA AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
UPGRADED THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING...WHILE STILL
DEEPENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BUT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 RANGE BY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP
DROP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS PERHAPS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 20S...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
MAY LEVEL OFF AT SOME POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 50S COULD BE REACHED
THUS TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A SLOWER
TIMING COULD MEAN WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER VERY STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH END TIME OF PRECIP ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM THIS
DISTANCE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF
MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...ITS DIFFICULT
TO LOWER OR RAISE POPS FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. THUS HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-31 KT INCREASING TO 22-35 KT EARLY
  AFTERNOON. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS 30-50 KT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
  EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS 20-35 KT OVERNIGHT.

* ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID DAY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BRIEFLY IFR CIG/VSBY IN HEAVIER
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

...HIGH WINDS ESPECIALLY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...
...MDT TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON...

SYNOPSIS AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING. LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO
INDIANA. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND HUMID AIR IS SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW...PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE IN A LULL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL
RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY LATE MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL PRODUCED SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CIG/VSBY...LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CIGS ARE GENERALLY 1000-2000 FT BUT WILL DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIG/VSBY WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VSBY TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PERIOD OF STRONG STORMS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RASN. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

&&

.MARINE...
142 AM CST

...STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH 2/3 OF LAKE MI LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
POWERHOUSE STORM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LAKE. A LARGE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. NORTH PART
OF THE LAKE MAY SEE SOME NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE FOR THE NORTH. GALES WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEARSHORE...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO GALES THIS EVENING...SO A SHORTER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ALLSOPP

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8
     PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 2 PM
     SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...8 PM
     SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM
     SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
181500-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /950 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE...
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
   TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...DAMAGING AND LONG TRACKED.
   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFFECT
  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...VERY DAMAGING...AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN EVANSTON TO
MENDOTA LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NORTH OF THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

LMZ740>745-181500-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BACK TO GALES
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181500-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1038 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HEBRON                  42.47N 88.43W
11/17/2013                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT ALDEN RD JUST NORTH OF THAYER RD.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1045 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     HAIL             LEE                     41.79N 88.94W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       DE KALB            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1047 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HEAVY RAIN       E HARVARD               42.42N 88.62W
11/17/2013  M1.19 INCH       MCHENRY            IL   COCORAHS

            1.19 INCHES IN 60 MINUTES.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1049 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     HAIL             OTTAWA                  41.35N 88.84W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUST TO 50 MPH AT
            N 31ST AND E13TH ROAD.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1059 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     HAIL             LA SALLE                41.34N 89.09W
11/17/2013  E0.75 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH THE HAIL IS HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS
            BLOWING SMALL ITEMS AROUND.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1112 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     HAIL             STILLMAN VALLEY         42.10N 89.18W
11/17/2013  E1.25 INCH       OGLE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING.

&&

BN