Tornado Warning 14, NWS Chicago, IL

108 
WWUS53 KLOT 171623
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC111-171700-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
MCHENRY IL-
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCHENRY
COUNTY UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

AT 1020 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HARVARD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND SMALL HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HEBRON AROUND 1035 AM CST.
  RICHMOND AROUND 1040 AM CST.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4234 8861 4238 8865 4250 8849 4250 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 232DEG 40KT 4239 8857


TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

BMD

447 
WWUS53 KLOT 171635
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC111-171700-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
MCHENRY IL-
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCHENRY
COUNTY UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

AT 1033 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HEBRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A SPOTTER 
REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM. A SECOND STORM JUST 
NORTHEAST OF HARVARD IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND IS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHMOND AROUND 1040 AM CST.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4237 8857 4240 8862 4250 8849 4250 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 233DEG 41KT 4249 8844


TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BMD

072 
WWUS53 KLOT 171642
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1042 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC111-171653-
/O.CAN.KLOT.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-131117T1700Z/
MCHENRY IL-
1042 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4237 8857 4240 8862 4250 8849 4250 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 233DEG 41KT 4255 8833

$$

BMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1009 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
950 AM CST

RADAR UPDATE...

TOR ISSUED FOR NW MCHENRY COUNTY DUE TO BRIEF RAPID TIGHTENING OF
THE ROTATION ALOFT NE OF BELVIDERE ON THE 1533Z SCAN. ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES AND HAD ALREADY GOTTEN
CONFIRMED ROTATION AND WALL CLOUD WITH SPOTTER SUBMITTED PHOTO WITH
OTHER REPORTS OF FUNNELS AS WELL. ROTATION HAS SINCE WEAKENED BUT
THE THREAT FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF ROTATION IN THESE STORMS
REMAINS HIGH.

905 AM CST

INITIAL STRING OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL.
A MODIFIED 14Z DVN RAOB INDICATES WE ARE ALREADY UNCAPPED BASED ON
OUR MID 60S DEW POINTS...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG
ALREADY BASED ON THIS. WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE CHANNELS
BOTH INDICATE MULTIPLE NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDORS OF CONVERGENCE
WITHIN THE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP...WITH AGITATED CUMULUS FROM
NORTHERN IL THROUGH CENTRAL MO.

INITIAL CELLS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN ROTATION WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
CONSIDERING THE IMPRESSIVE 35-45 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 60KT+ OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EASE SOME AS THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA MOVES NORTHEAST...IT WILL REMAIN PLENTY HIGH
AND WELL ABOVE WHAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN WHAT IS NEEDED FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY MAY BE THESE
STRINGS OF QUICK MOVING NORTHEAST CELLS...BUT IT IS STILL
ANTICIPATED THAT INDIVIDUAL DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THIS...OR JUST
ON THEN OWN...WILL BE THE MAIN MODE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND AND THE LATEST ONES
ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN TIME FOR
CHICAGOLAND CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE WITHIN 11AM-3PM.

DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN CONVECTION CAN BE VERY QUICK
IN THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHEAR ON RADAR
CORRELATING TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TIME. THIS IS EVEN
MORE REASON TO MAINTAIN A HIGH AWARENESS.

PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...
304 AM CST

HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
150 KT UPPER JET DIGGING DOWN ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SAME TIME A
SUB TROPICAL JET OF AROUND 120 KT IS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WI ONE WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A HINT OF ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE WITH IT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CATCHES UP WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILS FOR TODAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. STEADY ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK KEEPING
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND GUSTS WITH THE PRECIP THUS FAR WITH INTENSITY HAVING WANED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SOME PULSEY CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCT-BKN SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WORKING
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE SYNOPTIC NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING CAN OCCUR AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING AND GENERATION OF WIND GUSTS THAT COULD TOP 50 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS BACK TOWARDS THE MENDOTA AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
UPGRADED THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING...WHILE STILL
DEEPENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BUT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 RANGE BY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP
DROP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS PERHAPS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 20S...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
MAY LEVEL OFF AT SOME POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 50S COULD BE REACHED
THUS TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A SLOWER
TIMING COULD MEAN WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER VERY STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH END TIME OF PRECIP ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM THIS
DISTANCE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF
MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...ITS DIFFICULT
TO LOWER OR RAISE POPS FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. THUS HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-31 KT INCREASING TO 22-35 KT EARLY
  AFTERNOON. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS 30-50 KT MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
  EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS 20-35 KT OVERNIGHT.

* ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID DAY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BRIEFLY IFR CIG/VSBY IN HEAVIER
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

...HIGH WINDS ESPECIALLY MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...
...MDT TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON...

SYNOPSIS AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING. LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
DEEPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO
INDIANA. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND HUMID AIR IS SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF
THE LOW...PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT.

WINDS...SOUTH WINDS ARE IN A LULL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL
RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY LATE MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL PRODUCED SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS
25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

CIG/VSBY...LOOKING AT SURFACE OBS AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING...CIGS ARE GENERALLY 1000-2000 FT BUT WILL DROP BRIEFLY TO
IFR ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIG/VSBY WILL
IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

ALLSOPP

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VSBY TRENDS.

* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PERIOD OF STRONG STORMS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RASN. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

&&

.MARINE...
142 AM CST

...STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH 2/3 OF LAKE MI LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
POWERHOUSE STORM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LAKE. A LARGE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. NORTH PART
OF THE LAKE MAY SEE SOME NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE FOR THE NORTH. GALES WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEARSHORE...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO GALES THIS EVENING...SO A SHORTER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ALLSOPP

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8
     PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 2 PM
     SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...8 PM
     SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...2 PM
     SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
181500-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /950 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE...
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
   TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...DAMAGING AND LONG TRACKED.
   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFFECT
  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...VERY DAMAGING...AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN EVANSTON TO
MENDOTA LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NORTH OF THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

LMZ740>745-181500-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BACK TO GALES
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181500-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
500 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ005-006-012-014-171115-
COOK IL-KANE IL-LAKE IL-MCHENRY IL-
500 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 457 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALGONQUIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
  ALGONQUIN...          CARPENTERSVILLE...    WEST DUNDEE...
  LAKE IN THE HILLS...  SLEEPY HOLLOW...      OAKWOOD HILLS...
  TOWER LAKES...        LAKE ZURICH...        ISLAND LAKE...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
COLLEGE OF LAKE COUNTY...LAKE COUNTY IL FAIRGROUNDS...SIX FLAGS GREAT
AMERICA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 8798 4226 8782 4208 8833 4217 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1100Z 236DEG 49KT 4214 8831

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
602 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ013-014-022-023-INZ001-171230-
COOK IL-DUPAGE IL-KANKAKEE IL-LAKE IN-WILL IL-
602 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 558 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOCKPORT TO
PEOTONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
  LOCKPORT...           NEW LENOX...          PEOTONE...
  INGALLS PARK...       LEMONT...             UNIVERSITY PARK...
  RICHTON PARK...       MONEE...              MOKENA...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
FIRST MIDWEST BANK AMPHITHEATRE...GOVERNORS STATE UNIVERSITY...
HAWTHORNE PARK...ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY...INDIANA UNIVERSITY
NORTHWEST...JOLIET SLAMMERS BASEBALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.  SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 8773 4157 8815 4195 8763 4191 8762
      4190 8760 4184 8760 4177 8756 4175 8753
      4170 8751 4168 8745 4169 8742 4167 8741
      4165 8742 4163 8733 4162 8722 4137 8722
TIME...MOT...LOC 1202Z 228DEG 51KT 4161 8798 4134 8768

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1003 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W HEBRON              42.47N 88.49W
11/17/2013                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN