Tornado Warning 20, NWS Chicago, IL

118 
WWUS53 KLOT 172008
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
208 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

INC073-172018-
/O.EXP.KLOT.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-131117T2015Z/
JASPER IN-
208 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
215 PM CST...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4096 8704 4103 8709 4113 8693 4101 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 234DEG 54KT 4113 8682

$$

BMD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
151 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
150 PM CDT

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING ALL OF CHICAGOLAND. THE PRIMARY THREAT HAS
SHIFTED EAST WITH THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.

BUBBLING CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
FORD...IROQUOIS...AND KANKAKEE COUNTIES DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST OF
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TO WORK WITH FOR TORNADOGENESIS...BUT WILL BE
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AS THEY TRACK EAST WITHIN A
STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...
304 AM CST

HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
A MAJOR FALL STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING A
150 KT UPPER JET DIGGING DOWN ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SAME TIME A
SUB TROPICAL JET OF AROUND 120 KT IS STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA UP THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WI ONE WAVE CROSSING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND A HINT OF ANOTHER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AT
THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
THE UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE WITH IT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST REACHING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CATCHES UP WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DETAILS FOR TODAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. STEADY ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK KEEPING
AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIND GUSTS WITH THE PRECIP THUS FAR WITH INTENSITY HAVING WANED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SOME PULSEY CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCT-BKN SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLOUDS WORKING
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

ATTENTION TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION COMMENCES. BOTH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WILL COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN
UPPER JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
JET WILL ALSO COUPLE WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A 85-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL NOSE IN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 55-60 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MIDDAY...WITH AN INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S WITH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL CAPE WITH 150 TO EVEN 200
J/KG IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN IMPRESSIVE VALUES
FOR VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. BASED ON ALL OF THIS EXPECT
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE BY LATE MORNING OVER OR JUST SOUTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ADVANCE NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO TAKE OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COUPLING OF THE MID/UPPER JETS MAXIMIZES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS WELL. THE RATE AT WHICH COVERAGE INCREASES IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH IT POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY WITH A MORE RAPID INCREASE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING. THE MYRIAD
OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE RUNS THE GAMUT OF COVERAGE
SCENARIOS. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LINES UP WELL WITH LOCAL
THINKING PLACING THE HIGHEST RISK FROM BASICALLY CHICAGO SOUTH TO
FORD COUNTY AND POINTS EAST. THIS AREA WILL LINE UP WELL WITH THE
BEST FORCING PARAMETERS AND TIMING OF INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE
ROCKFORD AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK AND MAY BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS THREATS...THE STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL POINT TO DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE LATER TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE ACROSS THE CWA
WITH EVOLUTION INTO A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR STRUCTURE TAKING PLACE
OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CWA. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADOES ARE A DEFINITE THREAT ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. THE STRONG SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER AND LONGER TRACKED TORNADOES SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

THE OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS THE SYNOPTIC NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
SOUTHERLY SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY MEANINGFUL CLEARING CAN OCCUR AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW. THE BIGGEST CONCERN HOWEVER IS WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
STRONG MIXING AND GENERATION OF WIND GUSTS THAT COULD TOP 50 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS BACK TOWARDS THE MENDOTA AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
UPGRADED THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THIS AFTERNOON.

MDB

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC MONDAY MORNING...WHILE STILL
DEEPENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL...THEN
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S BUT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 RANGE BY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAST TEMP
DROP MONDAY EVENING WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS PERHAPS AS LOW AS
THE LOWER 20S...BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
MAY LEVEL OFF AT SOME POINT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 50S COULD BE REACHED
THUS TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

RETURN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK WAVES LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION BUT STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS THE ECMWF HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND A SLOWER
TIMING COULD MEAN WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER VERY STRONG
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE LAKES REGION...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. TIMING OF COLDER AIR
ALONG WITH END TIME OF PRECIP ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM THIS
DISTANCE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF
MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...ITS DIFFICULT
TO LOWER OR RAISE POPS FOR VARIOUS TIME PERIODS. THUS HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF NO PRECIP DURING THIS
TIME. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35KT BECOMING MORE
  WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 45KT BY 21Z.

* PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
  SEVERE...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOWEST VIS AROUND
  1SM.

* MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS ORD/DPA/RFD AT THIS
HOUR...WITH MDW/GYY EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THUNDER IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO AN HOUR. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWEST
VIS/CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH ORD/MDW/GYY THE
LIKELY TERMINALS TO OBSERVE THESE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
NONETHELESS...CURRENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AREA WIDE
SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH RFD IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND THE REMAINING
TERMINALS IN THE 2-3 HOURS...WITH THE PRECIP BECOMING LESS
PREVAILING AFTER FROPA AS WELL AS CEILINGS IMPROVING.
ALTHOUGH...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER FROPA AND INCREASE
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45KT. THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING...WHILE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING/VSBY TRENDS.

RODRIGUEZ

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RASN. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

ALLSOPP

&&

.MARINE...
142 AM CST

...STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH 2/3 OF LAKE MI LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...
POWERHOUSE STORM WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...AND
WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FOR A BIT BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LAKE. A LARGE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INTENSIFY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. NORTH PART
OF THE LAKE MAY SEE SOME NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE FOR THE NORTH. GALES WILL
THEN CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEARSHORE...WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS BY
LATE AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO GALES THIS EVENING...SO A SHORTER
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ALLSOPP

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH WIND WARNING...ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-
     ILZ012 UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 8
     PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 2 PM
     SUNDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...4 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...8 PM
     SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
     8 PM SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
181500-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 /950 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRODUCE...
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH.
   TORNADOES...POSSIBLY STRONG...DAMAGING AND LONG TRACKED.
   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFFECT
  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...VERY DAMAGING...AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH 55 TO 60 MPH GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN EVANSTON TO
MENDOTA LINE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NORTH OF THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

LMZ740>745-181500-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE TO
STORM FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BACK TO GALES
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181500-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
850 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE
LAKE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
DIMINISHING BACK TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
115 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBURN                  41.89N 88.47W
11/17/2013                   KANE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 TO 8 INCH LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR IL-47 AND KESLINGER RD.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
134 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     TSTM WND GST     DUPAGE AIRPORT          41.92N 88.25W
11/17/2013  M59 MPH          DUPAGE             IL   ASOS

1249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW WILMINGTON         41.32N 88.19W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ON I-55 NEAR MURPHY RD - NORTHBOUND LANE AT MILE MARKER
            237 IS BLOCKED WITH FALLEN TREE. NEAR MILE MARKER 239
            POWER LINES, LIGHT POLES AND TREES ARE DOWN.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
137 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTERTON              41.60N 87.06W
11/17/2013                   PORTER             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS MEASURED AT 80 MPH - LARGE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
            DOWN.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
139 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOLINGBROOK             41.70N 88.08W
11/17/2013  E60 MPH          WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
141 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W HEBRON              42.47N 88.49W
11/17/2013                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1008 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARVARD                 42.42N 88.62W
11/17/2013  M54.00 MPH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1022 AM     HAIL             ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
11/17/2013  E0.75 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM     HAIL             ROSCOE                  42.42N 89.01W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1037 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HEBRON                  42.47N 88.43W
11/17/2013                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT ALDEN RD JUST NORTH OF THAYER RD.

1043 AM     HAIL             LEE                     41.79N 88.94W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       DE KALB            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

1044 AM     HEAVY RAIN       E HARVARD               42.42N 88.62W
11/17/2013  M1.19 INCH       MCHENRY            IL   COCORAHS

            1.19 INCHES IN 60 MINUTES.

1046 AM     HAIL             OTTAWA                  41.35N 88.84W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH WIND GUST TO 50 MPH AT
            N 31ST AND E13TH ROAD.

1047 AM     HAIL             LA SALLE                41.34N 89.09W
11/17/2013  E0.75 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH THE HAIL IS HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS
            BLOWING SMALL ITEMS AROUND.

1055 AM     TSTM WND GST     PERU                    41.34N 89.13W
11/17/2013  M58.00 MPH       LA SALLE           IL   AWOS

1103 AM     HAIL             N OGLESBY               41.29N 89.06W
11/17/2013  E0.50 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   COCORAHS

1109 AM     HAIL             STILLMAN VALLEY         42.10N 89.18W
11/17/2013  E1.25 INCH       OGLE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING.

1111 AM     HAIL             OGLESBY                 41.29N 89.06W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1116 AM     HAIL             ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT NEWBURG AND ALPINE.

1120 AM     TSTM WND GST     YORKVILLE               41.64N 88.45W
11/17/2013  M70.00 MPH       KENDALL            IL   PUBLIC

            AT GALENA RD AND IL-47 ALSO HAD WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH
            DIME SIZE HAIL..

1120 AM     HAIL             5 S ROCKFORD AIRPORT    42.13N 89.10W
11/17/2013  E1.75 INCH       OGLE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED FROM QUARTER 1.00 INCH TO GOLFBALL SIZE 1.75
            WITH DAMAGE.

1128 AM     TSTM WND GST     AURORA                  41.77N 88.29W
11/17/2013  E60.00 MPH       KANE               IL   PUBLIC

            AT ORCHARD AND GALENA. SOCIAL MEDIA.

1136 AM     TORNADO          DANA                    40.96N 88.95W
11/17/2013                   LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTH OF THE WOODFORD - LASALLE
            COUNTY LINE. POWER FLASHES OCCURRING.

1138 AM     HAIL             ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR US-20 AND I-90. WIND GUST TO 40 MPH.

1139 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROSELLE                 41.98N 88.08W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HANOVER PARK            41.98N 88.14W
11/17/2013                   DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT COUNTY FARM AND ARMY TRAIL - SMALL LIMBS DOWNS.
            ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH. ALSO HAD PAE SIZE HAIL.

1146 AM     TSTM WND GST     LISLE                   41.79N 88.09W
11/17/2013  M58.00 MPH       DUPAGE             IL   PUBLIC

            LEASK LANE NEAR MORTON ARBORETUM. HAD SOME DAMAGE.

1156 AM     TSTM WND GST     NORTHBROOK              42.13N 87.83W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       COOK               IL   PUBLIC

            AT TECHNER AND LANDWHER.

1156 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW NORTHBROOK        42.12N 87.87W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE TOPS WERE ALMOST HORZONTAL.

1214 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKFORT               41.50N 87.84W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR US-30 AND HARLEM - NUMEROUS HOUSES HAVE ROOF DAMAGE
            - SHINGLES MISSING. WOODLAWN DRIVE IS FLOODED

1217 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GARDNER                 41.19N 88.31W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   PUBLIC

            AT I-55 AND GARDNER RD. SOCIAL MEDIA.

1217 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROMEOVILLE              41.65N 88.09W
11/17/2013  M50.00 MPH       WILL               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RANSOM                  41.16N 88.66W
11/17/2013                   LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOPS OF TREES BLOWN DOWN. SHEET METAL DAMAGED AT
            CONSTRUCTION SITE.

1220 PM     TORNADO          BRACEVILLE              41.22N 88.27W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IL-113 AT WILL/GRUNDY COUNTY LINE.

1225 PM     TORNADO          WILMINGTON              41.30N 88.16W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT IL-53 AND WILMINGTON AND PEOTONE ROAD.

1226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIAMOND                 41.29N 88.26W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSES DAMAGED ON LAURA LANE.

1228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COAL CITY               41.29N 88.28W
11/17/2013                   GRUNDY             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DESTROYED AT SPRING AND BERTA.

1231 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W GIBSON CITY         40.47N 88.45W
11/17/2013  E67.00 MPH       FORD               IL   PUBLIC

            NEAR IL-9 AND COUNTY LINE RD. SOCIAL MEDIA.

1235 PM     HAIL             EVANSTON                42.05N 87.69W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NEW LENOX               41.52N 87.98W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR US-355 AND IL-6.

1237 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCHELLE                41.92N 89.06W
11/17/2013  M67.00 MPH       OGLE               IL   AWOS

1239 PM     TORNADO          2 S MANHATTAN           41.40N 87.99W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   STORM CHASER

            SOUTH OF MANHATTAN

1242 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAK LAWN                41.72N 87.75W
11/17/2013  E75.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 PM     HAIL             NEW LENOX               41.52N 87.98W
11/17/2013  E1.75 INCH       WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT US-30 AND GOUGER RD.

1245 PM     HAIL             3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
11/17/2013  M1.00 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            ALSO HAD WIND GUST TO 52 MPH.

1245 PM     TSTM WND GST     ORLAND PARK             41.61N 87.85W
11/17/2013  E60.00 MPH       COOK               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALONG HARLEM AVENUE

1249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW WILMINGTON         41.32N 88.19W
11/17/2013                   WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ON I-55 NEAR MURPHY RD - NORTHBOUND LANE AT MILE MARKER
            237 IS BLOCKED WITH FALLEN TREE. NEAR MILE MARKER 239
            POWER LINES, LIGHT POLES AND TREES ARE DOWN.

1249 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW YORKVILLE          41.62N 88.47W
11/17/2013  M0.66 INCH       KENDALL            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7 AM.

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW DE KALB            41.95N 88.78W
11/17/2013  E50.00 MPH       DE KALB            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DE KALB                 41.93N 88.75W
11/17/2013                   DE KALB            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR IL-23 AND GURLER RD.

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE KALB                 41.93N 88.75W
11/17/2013  M54.00 MPH       DE KALB            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AT NIU.

1258 PM     FLOOD            1 N EVANSTON            42.06N 87.69W
11/17/2013                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            500 BLOCK OF SHERIDAN RD IN EVANSTON IS FLOODED WITH 6 TO
            8 INCHES OF WATER.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBURN                  41.89N 88.47W
11/17/2013                   KANE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 TO 8 INCH LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR IL-47 AND KESLINGER RD.

0105 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE WOODSTOCK          42.33N 88.41W
11/17/2013  E65.00 MPH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0109 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRYSTAL LAKE            42.23N 88.33W
11/17/2013  E70.00 MPH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT US-14 AT MCHENRY COLLEGE.

0111 PM     TSTM WND GST     DUPAGE AIRPORT          41.92N 88.25W
11/17/2013  M59.00 MPH       DUPAGE             IL   ASOS

0120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
11/17/2013  M0.65 INCH       COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES.

0122 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROWN POINT             41.42N 87.36W
11/17/2013                   LAKE               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES SNAPPED.

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOLINGBROOK             41.70N 88.08W
11/17/2013  E60.00 MPH       WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESTERTON              41.60N 87.06W
11/17/2013                   PORTER             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS MEASURED AT 80 MPH - LARGE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
            DOWN.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
148 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             1 WNW BATAVIA           41.86N 88.32W
11/17/2013  M0.50 INCH       KANE               IL   COCORAHS

1137 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CAROL STREAM        41.93N 88.13W
11/17/2013  E65.00 MPH       DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMBOY                   41.72N 89.33W
11/17/2013                   LEE                IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIDING DAMAGE AND TREE 1 INCH DIAMETER DOWN

1232 PM     TSTM WND GST     AMBOY                   41.72N 89.33W
11/17/2013  E73.00 MPH       LEE                IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ACS