Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH #377 IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 10 PM EDT.

EXTREME ONGOING FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHWEST CLEARFIELD COUNTY
IS NOW MORPHING INTO A HYBRID SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AS CELLS OVER BEDFORD AND
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN DECENT ROTATION...INFLUENCED BY THE
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BLAIR COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED BY FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR CLEARFIELD COUNTY AS HIGH
INTENSITY RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. A FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FROM TROUTVILLE THROUGH DUBOIS AND TREASURE
LAKE WHERE WATER RESCUES...EVACUATIONS AND ROAD CLOSURES ARE IN
PROGRESS. ROUTES 322 AND 219 ARE CLOSED AT THEIR INTERSECTION.

AS THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY...FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STORY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ BECOME THE FOCUS NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS PIVOTING EASTWARD.
CLEARFIELD AND (PBZ/S) JEFFERSON COUNTY HAVE BEEN THE UNFORTUNATE
PIVOT POINT TODAY...WITH SEVERE FLASH FLOODING THE RESULT FROM
SYKESVILLE THROUGH TROUTDALE AND DUBOIS AND TREASURE LAKE.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH QPFS STILL THE ORDER OF THE DAY...BUT
HIGH INTENSITY TRAINING ECHOES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
THE PIVOT POINT PROPAGATES...LOCALLY 3" PLUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT
AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DRIER FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA...AS SOUTHERLY LL JET
AND ASSOC PLUME OF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGH PWATS PUSHES OFF THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...TRAILING ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED CONDS WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR
PM TSRA. LIMITED MSTR/NEAR NORMAL PWATS SHOULD HELP CONTAIN BASIN
AVG RAFL AMTS. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CU/STRATO-CU ON
FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO PUSH READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROF COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE
CONSIDERABLY AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
CLOUDIER SKIES AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THE UNSEASONABLY LOW
HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA ON SATURDAY...A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GIVEN COOL TEMPS
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RTS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PM SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO ARND 60 PCT BASED ON LATEST GEFS
OUTPUT. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS INDICATE SAT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP
READINGS COOLER ACROSS THE WEST.

MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS TROF CENTERED OVR THE E
GRT LKS/OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WESTWARD MIGRATION
OF TROF AND W ATLANTIC RIDGE INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS RETROGRESSION
TAKES PLACE...SOUTHERLY LL JET AND BAND OF ANOMALOUS PWATS ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...PROMOTING
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FROM DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SUN-WED.

ALTHOUGH MCLDY SKIES SHOULD CAP DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR SHOULD RESULT IN A STRETCH
OF WARM NIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DENSE FOG/SHALLOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST AIRFIELDS
THRU 13-14Z WITH VIS-CIGS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
3-5SM VIS IN HZ /MVFR/ IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS MORNING.

ADDED VCTS TO MOST SITES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN 15-20Z.
N-S BAND OF RAIN W/ EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN
AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR AROUND 14-15Z...AND BRING MOD TO HVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. LCL VIS MAY DROP TO 1-2SM IN +SHRA/+TSRA.

SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK SLOWLY ENEWD ACRS CNTRL PA THIS AFTN/EVE AND INTO NY STATE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO CONTEND WITH.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
403 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
282015-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-282015-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ026>028-035-049>053-282015-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TREASURE LAKE           41.17N  78.72W
06/27/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADWAY FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300196

COLBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLAIN                   40.34N  77.51W
06/27/2013                   PERRY              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300197

COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
322 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ028-050-052-056-057-272000-
DAUPHIN PA-JUNIATA PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-
322 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SNYDER...NORTHEASTERN
JUNIATA...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN DAUPHIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 318 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR AMITY HALL...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY
FERRY...LIVERPOOL...BERRYSBURG AND MEISERVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE
209...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4083 7713 4076 7670 4035 7690 4037 7713

FORECASTER: COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ066-272100-
LANCASTER PA-
405 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 359 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GAP...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT GAP...NEW HOLLAND...
CHURCHTOWN AND ADAMSTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 285
AND 295.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 41.

LAT...LON 4011 7593 4004 7593 3996 7599 3989 7599
      3986 7600 3993 7622 4028 7609 4014 7587
      4013 7588

FORECASTER:MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ012-018-019-027-045-046-272115-
MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CENTRE...NORTH CENTRAL
MIFFLIN...SOUTH CENTRAL LYCOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI
AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT BELLEFONTE...POE VALLEY STATE PARK...AND MILESBURG...ZION...
AND MILLHEIM...HOWARD...AND REBERSBURG...LAMAR...AND BALD EAGLE STATE
PARK AND BEECH CREEK.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... PENNSYLVANIA MILITARY
MUSEUM...TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI AREA AND LOCK HAVEN UNIVERSITY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 194...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76
AND 85.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...
ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 45...
STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4113 7703 4107 7712 4107 7714 4105 7714
      4069 7763 4071 7768 4073 7768 4072 7771
      4077 7785 4120 7773

FORECASTER: JUNG/GRUMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ059-066-272130-
LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
430 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LANCASTER
AND SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LEOLA...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT EPHRATA...TERRE HILL...
REAMSTOWN...ADAMSTOWN AND NEWMANSTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267
AND 293.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 222...ROUTE
322...ROUTE 422...STATE ROAD 501.

OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

LAT...LON 4001 7611 4015 7648 4043 7634 4043 7632
      4037 7623 4037 7621 4030 7613 4019 7595

FORECASTER: MARTIN