River Flood Warning 6, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TORNADO WATCH #377 IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY UNTIL 10 PM EDT.

EXTREME ONGOING FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHWEST CLEARFIELD COUNTY
IS NOW MORPHING INTO A HYBRID SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SUSQ AS CELLS OVER BEDFORD AND
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN DECENT ROTATION...INFLUENCED BY THE
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BLAIR COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCES HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED BY FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR CLEARFIELD COUNTY AS HIGH
INTENSITY RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. A FLASH FLOOD
EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FROM TROUTVILLE THROUGH DUBOIS AND TREASURE
LAKE WHERE WATER RESCUES...EVACUATIONS AND ROAD CLOSURES ARE IN
PROGRESS. ROUTES 322 AND 219 ARE CLOSED AT THEIR INTERSECTION.

AS THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG A
BOUNDARY...FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STORY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQ BECOME THE FOCUS NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS PIVOTING EASTWARD.
CLEARFIELD AND (PBZ/S) JEFFERSON COUNTY HAVE BEEN THE UNFORTUNATE
PIVOT POINT TODAY...WITH SEVERE FLASH FLOODING THE RESULT FROM
SYKESVILLE THROUGH TROUTDALE AND DUBOIS AND TREASURE LAKE.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH QPFS STILL THE ORDER OF THE DAY...BUT
HIGH INTENSITY TRAINING ECHOES WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
THE PIVOT POINT PROPAGATES...LOCALLY 3" PLUS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THAT
AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A DRIER FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA...AS SOUTHERLY LL JET
AND ASSOC PLUME OF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGH PWATS PUSHES OFF THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...TRAILING ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED CONDS WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR
PM TSRA. LIMITED MSTR/NEAR NORMAL PWATS SHOULD HELP CONTAIN BASIN
AVG RAFL AMTS. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CU/STRATO-CU ON
FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO PUSH READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROF COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE
CONSIDERABLY AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
CLOUDIER SKIES AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION. THE UNSEASONABLY LOW
HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA ON SATURDAY...A
PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GIVEN COOL TEMPS
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RTS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PM SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO ARND 60 PCT BASED ON LATEST GEFS
OUTPUT. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS INDICATE SAT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP
READINGS COOLER ACROSS THE WEST.

MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS TROF CENTERED OVR THE E
GRT LKS/OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WESTWARD MIGRATION
OF TROF AND W ATLANTIC RIDGE INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS RETROGRESSION
TAKES PLACE...SOUTHERLY LL JET AND BAND OF ANOMALOUS PWATS ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA...PROMOTING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FROM DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION SUN-WED.

ALTHOUGH MCLDY SKIES SHOULD CAP DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR SHOULD RESULT IN A STRETCH
OF WARM NIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 21Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HAD MORE DENSE FOG AT UNV AND AOO THAN I EXPECTED LAST NIGHT...
GIVEN SHORT NIGHTS.

ANYWAY...MAIN CONCERN NOW IS BANDS OF STORMS THAT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEEN UPDATING
TAFS AS NEEDED THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FAR WESTERN AREAS LIKE JST AND AOO MAINLY DONE WITH ANY MAJOR
WEATEHR...JUST A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST.

ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING CAUSED BY A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND TRACKING SLOWLY ENEWD
ACRS CNTRL PA THIS AFTN/EVE AND INTO NY STATE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-TUE...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
282315-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
715 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ057>059-066-282315-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
715 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...TORNADO WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ049>053-282315-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
715 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 377 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ036-056-063>065-282315-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
715 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CATAWISSA               40.95N  76.46W
06/27/2013                   COLUMBIA           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER ACROSS ROADS NEAR CATAWISSA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300220

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLOOD            BEECH CREEK             41.07N  77.59W
06/27/2013                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VEHICLES REPORTED TO BE STRANDED IN WATER ALONG ROUTE
            150.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300221

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BLOOMSBURG         40.99N  76.47W
06/27/2013                   COLUMBIA           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER REPORTED TO BE ACROSS ROUTE 42 IN MONTOUR TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300222

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
651 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIVERSIDE               40.28N  78.92W
06/27/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300223

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLOOD            HOWARD                  41.01N  77.66W
06/27/2013                   CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSONS TRAPPED INSIDE A BUILDING DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300224

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N DANVILLE            40.98N  76.61W
06/27/2013                   MONTOUR            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS IN MAHONING TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300225

EVANEGO