Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS State College, PA

Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA

663 
WGUS61 KCTP 280115
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
915 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013


PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-280215-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130628T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
915 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF WILLIAMSPORT. BUT...IN
GENERAL...THE THREAT OF NEW FLOODING HAS ENDED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
750 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG AND SHALLOW STRATUS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE CWA THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT WIDER CVRG OF
1/4SM VISBYS. NOW THAT THE SUN IS UP...THE DENSE FOG SHOULD ONLY
LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR - SO WILL NOT ISSUE DENSE FG ADVY AND
COVER WITH NOW/SPS.

IR/WV SATL SHOWS WELL-DEFINED VORT/OLD MCV MOVG INTO N-CNTRL OH
LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN GRT LKS
AND UPPER OH VLY. THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THIS MESOSCALE FEATURE
IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ALL TRACK IT
ENEWD ACRS N-CNTRL PA THIS AFTN/EVE AND THEN INTO THE CATSKILLS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. STG S-SELY FLOW AT H85 WILL PULL VERY HIGH MSTR
NWD INTO CNTRL PA AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE...WITH PWATS FCST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE E-CNTRL MTNS AND SUSQ VLY
BY 21Z. EXPECT COMBO OF LG SCALE LIFT/HGT FALLS ASSOCD WITH H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VERY HIGH MSTR AVAILABILITY TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT WITH 1-2+
INCH AMTS...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AND NERN PA WHICH
IS WHERE MOST OF THE 00Z OPRNL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE HI-RES MDLS/
ARE FOCUSING THEIR HEAVIEST QPF.

CONCERNING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...FFG VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH IN AREA WHERE HEAVIEST RAFL IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE FF WATCH ATTM. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS DUE TO INTENSE/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAIN RATES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. HAVE ALSO KEPT HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING IN THE GRIDDED WEATHER ELEMENTS/WORDED FCSTS. THE
SERN ZONES ARE IN THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK BUT THE SVR THREAT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...OWING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES.
IF SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
LOW...BANDS OF TSTMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD STG TO DMGG WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DRIER FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA...AS SOUTHERLY LL JET
AND ASSOC PLUME OF AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGH PWATS PUSHES OFF THE E
COAST. HOWEVER...TRAILING ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MEAN TROUGH WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED CONDS WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR
PM TSRA. LIMITED MSTR/NEAR NORMAL PWATS SHOULD HELP CONTAIN BASIN
AVG RAFL AMTS. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE SOUTH.

ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CU/STRATO-CU ON
FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES TO PUSH READINGS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF TROF COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD WANE
CONSIDERABLY AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY LOW HEIGHTS WILL COVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA
ON SATURDAY...A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION GIVEN
COOL TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RTS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHC OF PM
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO ARND 60 PCT BASED ON
LATEST GEFS OUTPUT. ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS INDICATE SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP READINGS COOLER ACROSS THE WEST.

MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS TROF CENTERED OVR THE E
GRT LKS/OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WESTWARD MIGRATION
OF TROF AND W ATLANTIC RIDGE INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS RETROGRESSION
TAKES PLACE...SOUTHERLY LL JET AND BAND OF ANOMALOUS PWATS ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...PROMOTING
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FROM DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTION SUN-WED.

ALTHOUGH MCLDY SKIES SHOULD CAP DAYTIME TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR SHOULD RESULT IN A STRETCH
OF WARM NIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DENSE FOG/SHALLOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST AIRFIELDS
THRU 13-14Z WITH VIS-CIGS AOB AIRFIELD MINS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
3-5SM VIS IN HZ /MVFR/ IS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS MORNING.

ADDED VCTS TO MOST SITES FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN 15-20Z.
N-S BAND OF RAIN W/ EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN
AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR AROUND 14-15Z...AND BRING MOD TO HVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE AREA. LCL VIS MAY DROP TO 1-2SM IN +SHRA/+TSRA.

SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK SLOWLY ENEWD ACRS CNTRL PA THIS AFTN/EVE AND INTO NY STATE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO CONTEND WITH.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...VFR-MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049-050-
056-280945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-PERRY-
539 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL RESULT THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ051>053-057>059-063>066-280945-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
539 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.