Tornado Watch 115

Issued

Mar 29, 2012, 5:10 PM CDT (22:10 UTC)

In effect from

Mar 29, 2012, 5:15 PM CDT

Expired

Mar 29, 2012, 11:00 PM CDT

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

3 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

Counties Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

50%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

20%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

20%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

70%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

90%

• Mesoscale Discussion 381Mar 29, 4:54 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 384Mar 29, 6:58 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 387Mar 29, 9:51 PM CDT

947 
WWUS20 KWNS 292213
SEL5
SPC WW 292213
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-300400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHEAST KANSAS
       NORTHWEST MISSOURI
       SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST OF LEAVENWORTH KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BY ABOUT 23Z
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NE KS INTO SE
NEB...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM
MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG
A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KS...WHERE
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD INTO NW MO LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...THOMPSON

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2012Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2012Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.