Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 387

March 29, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 29, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 29, 2012, 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC)
Expired: Mar 29, 2012, 10:45 PM CDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Doniphan County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 761 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 647 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

843 
ACUS11 KWNS 300251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300251 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB/FAR NERN KS/FAR NWRN MO/FAR SWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 115...

VALID 300251Z - 300345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 115 CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO PRIMARY THREATS FOR
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE ONGOING MCS LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN
MO/SWRN IA TRACKS EWD...BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION STRENGTHENS. 

A SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN
NEB...AND AT 0215Z...SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WAS LOCATED INVOF FNB.  WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D
VWPS SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS ERN KS TO NWRN-WEST CENTRAL MO
HAD VEERED TO SWLY RESULTING IN GREATEST AREA OF LOW LEVEL FORCING
NOW FOCUSED INTO SWRN IA AND FAR NWRN MO NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. 
THIS TREND COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION DUE
TO LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM BEING
SURFACE BASED WITH THE SWRN IA/FAR NWRN MO MCS CONTINUING TO
TRANSITION TO BEING PRIMARILY ELEVATED. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT SUGGEST HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE A CONTINUED THREAT AS THIS MCS ADVANCES EWD FROM WW 115 INTO WW
117.

..PETERS.. 03/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39409497 39699531 40109571 40349612 40769618 40909580
            41189574 41169497 40609486 40569459 39559461 39409497

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 29, 7:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Cass, Clarke, Dallas and 12 more	65 min
Mar 29, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Cass, Clarke, Decatur and 9 more	6 hr
Mar 29, 11:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Appanoose, Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Madison, Mahaska and 6 more	55 min
Mar 30, 3:20 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Audubon, Cass, Crawford, Fremont, Harrison and 7 more	85 min
Mar 29, 8:45 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Butler, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Marion and 3 more	30 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.