Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 378
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 29, 2012, 11:53 AM CDT for 11 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 29, 2012, 11:53 AM CDT (16:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 29, 2012, 1:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Howard County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saline County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1633 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -59 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 545 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 131 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 215 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
826
ACUS11 KWNS 291653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291653
MOZ000-291830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291653Z - 291830Z
AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHIFTING EAST OF KIRKSVILLE MO TOWARD
THE QUINCY IL AREA. IN ITS WAKE...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION REMAINS WEAK
ENOUGH ALONG A LINGERING LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO ALLOW
CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE
MO. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOIST WESTERLY STORM
INFLOW...ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS IS
SUPPORTING OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR DUE
PRIMARILY TO VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 20-30 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WITH
TIME...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT INCREASING INHIBITION
WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL WARMING...AND WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...COULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRENDS TO CONVECTION BY
20-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE.
..KERR.. 03/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40189392 40139290 39789205 39039216 39009300 39489431
39909434 40189392SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 7:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates, Buchanan, Cass, Clay, Henry, Jackson and 4 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 28, 11:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Boone, Buchanan and 32 more | 84 min |
| Mar 29, 4:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Holt, Nodaway | 36 min |
| Mar 29, 5:10 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Holt, Nodaway | 6 hr |
| Mar 29, 6:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Holt, Nodaway | 62 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.