Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445

Issued

Jul 1, 2012, 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC)

Expired

Jul 1, 2012, 11:00 PM EDT

In force

9 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

10%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

2%

Ten or more severe wind reports

70%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

50%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

50%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

95%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1331Jul 1, 11:38 AM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1334Jul 1, 1:39 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1336Jul 1, 2:53 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1340Jul 1, 4:15 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1350Jul 1, 7:39 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1357Jul 1, 9:45 PM EDT

947 
WWUS20 KWNS 011804
SEL5
SPC WW 011804
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-CWZ000-020200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
       SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
       SOUTH CAROLINA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF AUGUSTA
GEORGIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN SC/NC.  THESE STORMS WILL
FORM IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 4000-6000
J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MANY OF THE STORMS.  LIKEWISE...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE
PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL FAVOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK
TO THE S OF NC...STORM/COLD POOL MERGERS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
THE FORMATION OF A CLUSTER OR TWO...WITH MORE SWD STORM PROPAGATION
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.


...THOMPSON

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Carolina, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Georgia, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.