Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Wilmington, NC

852 
WWUS52 KILM 020105
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC047-155-SCC033-051-020145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-DILLON SC-HORRY SC-
905 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HORRY...SOUTHEASTERN DILLON...NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 905 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR BARNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FAIR BLUFF...
CERRO GORDO...CHADBOURN...CHERRY GROVE AND CLARENDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3447 7901 3425 7870 3415 7906 3441 7918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 328DEG 22KT 3435 7904

$$

III

334 
WWUS52 KILM 020116
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

SCC033-020126-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
DILLON SC-
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DILLON COUNTY IS
CANCELED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3425 7870 3415 7906 3428 7910 3430 7907
      3433 7911 3434 7911 3440 7908 3443 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 324DEG 18KT 3432 7899

$$

NCC047-155-SCC051-020145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
ROBESON NC-COLUMBUS NC-HORRY SC-
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HORRY...WEST CENTRAL COLUMBUS AND EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL ROBESON COUNTIES...

AT 916 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR FAIR BLUFF...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CERRO
GORDO...CHADBOURN...CHERRY GROVE AND CLARENDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3425 7870 3415 7906 3428 7910 3430 7907
      3433 7911 3434 7911 3440 7908 3443 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 324DEG 18KT 3432 7899

$$

III

414 
WWUS52 KILM 020122
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
922 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC155-020132-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
ROBESON NC-
922 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ROBESON
COUNTY IS CANCELED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3425 7870 3415 7906 3416 7906 3431 7907
      3431 7904 3435 7903 3438 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 324DEG 18KT 3430 7897

$$

NCC047-SCC051-020145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
COLUMBUS NC-HORRY SC-
922 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HORRY AND WEST CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTIES...

AT 922 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CERRO GORDO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
   CHERRY GROVE...
   CLARENDON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3425 7870 3415 7906 3416 7906 3431 7907
      3431 7904 3435 7903 3438 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 324DEG 18KT 3430 7897

$$

III

775 
WWUS52 KILM 020131
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC047-SCC051-020145-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-120702T0145Z/
COLUMBUS NC-HORRY SC-
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HORRY AND WEST CENTRAL COLUMBUS COUNTIES...

AT 931 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CHERRY GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
   CLARENDON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3429 7902 3432 7893 3425 7870 3415 7906
      3425 7907
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 315DEG 18KT 3425 7894

$$

III

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT COMBINED WITH
THE INTENSE HEAT COULD TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPCOMING WEEK
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE DAYS AHEAD WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS. SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
INITIATION AND WHERE AND WHEN THE RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF LOCALLY. MCS STILL MOVING ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY PROVIDE A
MESOSCALE FORCING...BUT ANY SUCH STORMS WOULD LIKELY STAY NORTH OF
HERE. FURTHER SOUTH THERE IS SOME GRADUALLY INCREASING AGITATION
IN THE CU FIELD ROUGHLY BANDED FROM PAMLICO SOUND TO UPSTATE
SC...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING THE N SIDE OF PIEDMONT/THERMAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. NO SURPRISE WITH THESE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT RAPID
CYCLE/HI RES MODELS OF VARIOUS PERSUASIONS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
LOCALLY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION
THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. HRRR FIRES STORMS JUST WEST OF MARLBORO
COUNTY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY 20Z. SFC OBS SHOW
HEIGHTENED CONVG INTO THE TROUGH IN THIS LOCALE WITH A POSSIBLE
MESOLOW NORTH OF SSC SO THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRIGHTFULLY HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BOTH WITH
RESPECT TO THE SURFACE AND THE 100MB MEAN LAYER. THE HIGHER VALUES
OF THE FORMER WILL NOT BE REALIZED TODAY DUE THE HIGH STORM BASES
BUT THE MLCAPES OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ARE
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG...AND SHOW THE CAP JUST ABOUT ERODED. OTHER
THAN THE OBVIOUS FORECAST/POP RAMIFICATIONS DETERMINING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FEELS OF HEIGHTENED IMPORTANCE TODAY AS STORMS WILL
TURN SEVERE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DUE THE EXTREME UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION EXPECTED.

NOT TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE AN AFTERTHOUGHT BUT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFYING WELL. HIS AROUND THE REGION SOLIDLY IN
THE 110-115 RANGE. ILM EVEN PEAKED AT AN INCREDIBLE 120F WHEN IT
READ 99/80.

EXCERPT FROM PREVIOUS:

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER...AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY THE CORRIDOR
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MIDATLANTIC/DELMARVA OF DAYS PAST MORE INTO MIDATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
BY THE SLIGHT RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WHAT IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE BAND OF NW FLOW THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP IS STRONGER THAN PROGGED YESTERDAY...WITH A BROAD SWATH
OF 40KT 500MB WINDS NOW SEEN IN THE 12Z WRF. CLUSTER OF TSMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER NW NC NEAR VA BORDER POSSIBLY EVEN TRIGGERED
BY OUTFLOW FROM SMALL MCS NOW MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN VA. ONCE
STORMS DO FIRE THEY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT DUBBED
'THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPRESSIVE' BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY PEAK OUT WITH EXTREME
VALUES EXCEEDING 6000 J/KG...ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS HERE IN THE
CAROLINAS. ONCE STORMS GET THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE...WHICH IS USUALLY
STILL DEFINED AS EXTREME INSTABILITY. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS VERY
'FAT' CAPE LIES ABOVE -10C AND EVEN -20C FAVORING THE GROWTH OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN WHAT WILL BE EXTREMELY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC HATCHED AREA FOR HAIL IN THE LATEST
SWODY1. STORM ELECTRIFICATION WILL ALSO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
LEADING TO VERY HIGH FLASH RATES. STORM TOPS/DEPTH WILL BE NOTABLY
HIGH DUE TO NOT ONLY THE HIGH CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATION BUT ALSO
BY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE RESULTING FROM BAND OF
WESTERLIES ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NY. THE EXTREME HEAT IN
PLACE WILL YIELD A HIGH STORM CLOUD BASE INCLUDING STEEP/ALMOST
DRY ADIABATIC SUBCLOUD LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME RENDER THE TORNADO THREAT
NEARLY NIL. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ADDING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN THE OTHERWISE NW TO
WNW STEERING FLOW. BEST FORECAST NOW...IS THAT NORTHERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY THE SOUTHEAST-BOUND MCS.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT HOWEVER TO WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS
INITIATE AND STORM-SCALE COLD POOL INTERACTION AND RESULTING
PROPAGATION VECTOR ONCE THEY ORGANIZE. THE EXACT LOCATION MAY BE
FINE TUNED BUT FOR NOW THE FCST IS BEING HEDGED TOWARDS THE WRF
SOLN...SHOWING THE TEMPORAL WINDOW AT A MAXIMUM FOR CONVECTION
ROUGHLY 23-02Z.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY...ILM 98...FLO 101...CRE 91.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION A DECENT
POSSIBILITY DURING THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...WITH
CONTINUED INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BEST TIMING WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES
AWAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH MAY
ALSO REACH THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.

STRONG CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
THROUGH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. TRIGGERS INCLUDE SEA BREEZE
FRONT...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED WARM SWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS...MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIGHT NOW BORDERLINE
ON MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MONDAY. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE
AS TO IF AND WHEN WE ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA UNDER NORTHEAST
EDGE OF 5H RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS SLOWLY BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWEST
BY A 5H TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS
KEEPS THE AREA MORE OR LESS IN DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND
ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES FROM LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUD. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK TO ENHANCE
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. POP VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST VALUES EARLIER. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLING A
LITTLE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PENETRATE
FARTHER INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED ALL TERMINALS IN SOME FORM
OR ANOTHER ARE ON THE WANE AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.  THERE ARE
A FEW UPSTREAM STORMS THAT HAVE A CHANCE TO AFFECT TERMINALS THROUGH
03Z OR SO...MAINLY ILM AND FLO.  AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN...WE COULD
SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY.
FOR NOW...TAFS REFLECT MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND ABOUT 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS TONIGHT
TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE SCT STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7:00 PM SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
AND OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE
WATERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NO CHANGES TO THE FAIRLY STEADY-STATE FORECAST. SW WINDS TO BE
MAINTAINED BETWEEN PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
A FEW 4 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOW
IN CWF TEXT. SEVERAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR MARINE
WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 15 KT. PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL ENHANCED PIEDMONT TROUGH...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...AND
SUBTLE EXPANSION OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALL LEAD TO INCREASES IN
SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD. ALONG THE COAST OCCASIONAL 20 KT IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR
THU/FRI...MAINLY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 1 FT OR SO SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 2:20 PM SUNDAY...LATEST ETSURGE MDL FORECAST DATA SHOWS A
POSITIVE HALF FOOT ANOMALY FOR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...JUST BREACHING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR LOW LYING AREAS ADJOINING
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM. SAME
DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY TO COVER TONIGHTS EVENT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...MJC/III/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ087-096-099-105-106-108>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-
030030-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CONTINUES.

AMZ250-252-254-256-030030-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CONTINUES.

NCZ107-030030-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON DURING THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO MID WEEK.

A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CONTINUES.

RJD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
827 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE PAMPLICO          33.94N  79.54W
07/01/2012                   FLORENCE           SC   MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 51.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200203

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
831 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE LELAND            34.26N  78.04W
07/01/2012                   BRUNSWICK          NC   MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR DOWNTOWN LELAND
            VICINITY OLD MILL ROAD.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200201

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
838 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUPPLY                  34.02N  78.27W
07/01/2012                   BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN VICINITY STONE CHIMNEY ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200204

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
843 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUPPLY                  34.02N  78.27W
07/01/2012                   BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN VICINITY STONE CHIMNEY ROAD.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200204

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ESE HEMINGWAY         33.72N  79.31W
07/01/2012                   GEORGETOWN         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD AT OLD PEE DEE ROAD AND WILLIAMS HILL
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200205

RAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
850 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OCEAN ISLE BEACH        33.89N  78.42W
07/01/2012                   BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN VICINITY EAST 2ND STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1200206

DCH