Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405

Issued

Jun 17, 2012, 7:57 PM CDT (00:57 UTC)

Expired

Jun 18, 2012, 4:00 AM CDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

65 kt

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

95%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

60%

Ten or more severe hail reports

50%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

40%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

95%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1202Jun 17, 7:27 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1203Jun 17, 10:55 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1204Jun 18, 1:28 AM CDT

699 
WWUS20 KWNS 180059
SEL5
SPC WW 180059
MNZ000-WIZ000-180700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 405
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       EASTERN MINNESOTA
       WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CAMP DOUGLAS WISCONSIN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 404...

DISCUSSION...A WELL-FORECAST FORWARD-PROPAGATING SVR MCS WILL TRACK
GENERALLY EAST AT 40-50KT ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO PORTIONS OF WRN
WI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION IS NOW SHOWING
SIGNS OF MERGING INTO A BOWING COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS WRN MN AND
ERN SD. A FEW CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE BOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE SOME CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL...WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 404. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO UPSCALE GROWTH AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW
ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO MAINTAIN BOTH MASS
TRANSPORT AND DEEP SHEAR...WHILE MESOSCALE LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION
ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE EDGE OF A STRONG GREAT PLAINS CAPPING
INVERSION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.


...CARBIN

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.