Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1201

June 17, 2012Kittson County, Marshall County, Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2012, 7:20 PM CDT for Kittson County, Marshall County, Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 17, 2012, 7:20 PM CDT (00:20 UTC)
Expired
Jun 17, 2012, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Kittson County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Towner County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2012-06-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2012-06-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 48 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2132 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

413 
ACUS11 KWNS 180020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180020 
MNZ000-NDZ000-180145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 180020Z - 180145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN ND AND NWRN MN
INTO PART OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER SERN SK...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. WEDGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WAS ALSO OBSERVED ADVANCING
NWD ACROSS ERN ND. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NWRN/N-CNTRL ND...MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KT...AND APPEAR TO BE TIED TO
AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS UPR FEATURE MAY AID
IN MAINTAINING STORMS AFTER DARK...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY POSSIBLE IF WARM/MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS OVER ERN ND CAN
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BOWING THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL E-SELYS QUICKLY VEER TO WLY AT 3 KM AGL...WHICH
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48720275 48970258 49019626 48109624 48090125 48720275

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 17, 7:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Carver, Chippewa, Chisago, Dakota and 18 more93 min
Jun 17, 7:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAitkin, Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carlton and 31 more8 hr
Jun 17, 10:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarver, Dakota, Dodge, Goodhue, Le Sueur, McLeod and 8 more95 min
Jun 18, 1:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Goodhue, Hennepin, Houston and 7 more62 min
Jun 18, 6:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcLean, Mountrail, Williams85 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.