Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 807
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2012, 2:17 AM CDT for Val Verde County, Texas. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2012, 2:17 AM CDT (07:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2012, 4:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
County Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 34 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -193 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2008 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
287
ACUS11 KWNS 140717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140717
TXZ000-140915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140717Z - 140915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AROUND 40KT TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE IN SW TX EARLY TODAY.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THIS THREAT
WILL SPREAD OUT OF TERRELL COUNTY AND WATCH 276 AND INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...LATEST CAPPI AND LTG DATA INDICATE THAT THE QLCS HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY SINCE MOVING THROUGH THE FST AREA
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE. SEVERE TSTM WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WRN/NWRN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AND MAY APPROACH THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND
09Z...4AM CDT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MCS MAINTENANCE AND
OVERALL POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE BEYOND ABOUT THAT TIME BUT GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 05/14/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30610184 30690167 30110093 29670067 29120065 28880092
28810146 29070197 29310228 29770268 30080202 30610184SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 9:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Reeves, Ward | 61 min |
| May 13, 9:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos and 4 more | 7 hr |
| May 13, 11:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Culberson, Ector, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos and 3 more | 53 min |
| May 14, 1:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Jeff Davis and 9 more | 3 hr |
| May 14, 2:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, Presidio, Reeves, Terrell | 5 hr |
| May 14, 6:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Maverick | 63 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.