Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 807

May 14, 2012Val Verde County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2012, 2:17 AM CDT for Val Verde County, Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2012, 2:17 AM CDT (07:17 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2012, 4:15 AM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

County Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -57 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-193 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2008 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

287 
ACUS11 KWNS 140717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140717 
TXZ000-140915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 140717Z - 140915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST AROUND 40KT TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE IN SW TX EARLY TODAY.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THIS THREAT
WILL SPREAD OUT OF TERRELL COUNTY AND WATCH 276 AND INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST CAPPI AND LTG DATA INDICATE THAT THE QLCS HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY SINCE MOVING THROUGH THE FST AREA
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF HURRICANE FORCE. SEVERE TSTM WIND POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WRN/NWRN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...AND MAY APPROACH THE DEL RIO AREA AROUND
09Z...4AM CDT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MCS MAINTENANCE AND
OVERALL POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE BEYOND ABOUT THAT TIME BUT GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...A SMALL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 05/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30610184 30690167 30110093 29670067 29120065 28880092
            28810146 29070197 29310228 29770268 30080202 30610184

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCulberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Reeves, Ward61 min
May 13, 9:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrewster, Crane, Culberson, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos and 4 more7 hr
May 13, 11:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Culberson, Ector, Jeff Davis, Loving, Pecos and 3 more53 min
May 14, 1:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Jeff Davis and 9 more3 hr
May 14, 2:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrewster, Jeff Davis, Pecos, Presidio, Reeves, Terrell5 hr
May 14, 6:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMaverick63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.