Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 746

May 7, 201217 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2012, 2:37 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2012, 2:37 PM CDT (19:37 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2012, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bandera County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Concho County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3104 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3104 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-170 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1000 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

531 
ACUS11 KWNS 071937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071937 
TXZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 071937Z - 072100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO FORWARD /EASTWARD/
PROPAGATING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 23-00Z.  AN
ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 261 PROBABLY WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND LARGE
CAPE...FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF A PERSISTENT ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  FLOW IN THE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERE IS GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT...ALOFT...40-50+ KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST 20
KT OR SO OF WESTERLY MEAN CONVECTIVE LAYER FLOW.  DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
AS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...A BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BECOME MORE
PROMINENT... WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING THE WACO/TEMPLE/AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO AREAS BY 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 05/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31200086 31590029 31759879 31539805 31099768 30449799
            29739830 29629918 30029988 30560026 30660050 31200086

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 12:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrewster, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 23 more8 hr
May 7, 2:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Ector, Gaines, Loving, Midland and 3 more2 hr
May 7, 3:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 30 more7 hr
May 7, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Culberson, Ector, Gaines, Jeff Davis, Loving and 4 more7 hr
May 7, 4:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison and 4 more67 min
May 7, 5:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Cass5 hr
May 7, 5:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Comal and 28 more89 min
May 7, 6:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 11 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.