Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 749

May 7, 201211 counties in Arkansas; 6 parishes in Louisiana; 10 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2012, 4:38 PM CDT for 11 counties in Arkansas; 6 parishes in Louisiana; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2012, 4:38 PM CDT (21:38 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2012, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 27 counties

Clark County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Pike County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 746 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -54 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
746 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-132 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1458 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

150 
ACUS11 KWNS 072138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072138 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0438 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXARKANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 072138Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER W CNTRL AR...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO N CNTRL LA AND NERN TX. THESE
STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DRIFT SEWD WITH TIME. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EVIDENT ON 21Z VISIBLE
IMAGERY FROM NERN LA NWWD INTO W CNTRL AR/ AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL TX NEWD TO ERN IND. A SUBTLE AREA OF IMPLIED
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN AR/LA...AND
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY/S SEVERE CONVECTION IN CNTRL
TX. AS SUCH...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AMIDST A
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT
ABOVE 2 KFT PER VAD WIND PROFILE AND PROFILER DATA MAY SUPPORT
WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS...PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DMGG
WINDS AND HAIL.

..HURLBUT/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33049540 33859484 34569397 34299335 33549279 32939258
            32029291 32139393 32329475 33049540

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 5:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Hempstead, Howard and 8 more5 hr
May 7, 1:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCatahoula, Concordia, Franklin, Madison, Richland, Tensas5 hr
May 7, 3:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatahoula, Concordia, Franklin, Madison, Tensas97 min
May 7, 12:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrewster, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 23 more8 hr
May 7, 2:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Ector, Gaines, Loving, Midland and 3 more2 hr
May 7, 2:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Blanco, Burnet, Concho, Gillespie, Kendall and 11 more83 min
May 7, 3:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 30 more7 hr
May 7, 3:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Culberson, Ector, Gaines, Jeff Davis, Loving and 4 more7 hr
May 7, 5:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Comal and 28 more89 min
May 7, 6:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 11 more95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.