Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 751

May 7, 2012Lea County, New Mexico; 17 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2012, 5:55 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2012, 5:55 PM MDT (23:55 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2012, 7:30 PM MDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Terry County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1136 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -273 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1187 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 220 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

975 
ACUS11 KWNS 072356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072355
TXZ000-NMZ000-080130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

VALID 072355Z - 080130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED WITHIN
WW 264 AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS CONVECTIVE MODE
TRANSITIONS TO A BROADER CLUSTER EVOLVING EWD FROM SERN NM. A
DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE CELLS THAT HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL HAVE LARGELY CONGLOMERATED INTO A CLUSTER OVER SERN NM. WITH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS AIDING IN EWD PROPAGATION OF THE CLUSTER INTO
A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR MASS IN THE S PLAINS OF NWRN
TX...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH UPDRAFT
INTENSITY WANING. STILL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT...RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33180408 33580299 33680231 33400179 33190142 32750116
            32370116 31860144 31570189 31210258 31280332 31670385
            31870392 33180408

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 1:24 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea	2 hr
May 7, 2:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea	7 hr
May 7, 11:46 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brewster, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 23 more	8 hr
May 7, 1:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Concho, Gillespie, Kendall and 11 more	83 min
May 7, 2:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 30 more	7 hr
May 7, 3:38 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bowie, Camp, Cass, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison and 4 more	67 min
May 7, 4:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bowie, Cass	5 hr
May 7, 4:31 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Comal and 28 more	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.