Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 674
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2012, 11:34 AM EDT for 34 counties in Michigan; 14 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 3, 2012, 11:34 AM EDT (15:34 UTC)
- Expired
- May 3, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 48 counties
Arenac County, MI, Bay County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Calumet County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Winnebago County, WI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 321 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -146 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 565 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 220 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
954
ACUS11 KWNS 031534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031534
MIZ000-WIZ000-031700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL WI...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031534Z - 031700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM ECNTRL WI INTO LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED.
DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SWRN WI AND
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE A BIT JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS ADAMS/SAUK COUNTIES IN SWRN WI. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN
THAT AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE...INITIALLY
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ACROSS ECNTRL WI
INTO LOWER MI. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING
FROM SERN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI AND THIS WILL AID DESTABILIZATION FOR
ROBUST NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NEEDED ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING.
..DARROW.. 05/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...
LAT...LON 44418869 44718389 43928220 42698263 42678636 43068946
44418869SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 12:51 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Manistee, Mason, Oceana | 54 min |
| May 3, 12:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie and 23 more | 5 hr |
| May 3, 2:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 27 more | 8 hr |
| May 3, 2:39 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Benzie, Clare, Crawford and 18 more | 66 min |
| May 3, 3:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien | 67 min |
| May 3, 4:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Bay, Calhoun, Cass, Clinton and 15 more | 57 min |
| May 3, 6:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 28 more | 63 min |
| May 2, 8:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe and 4 more | 37 min |
| May 2, 8:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse and 3 more | 5 hr |
| May 3, 9:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Buffalo, Calumet, Clark, Columbia and 26 more | 92 min |
| May 3, 2:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Jefferson, Kenosha and 7 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.