Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 65

January 24, 201244 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 24, 2012, 11:34 PM CST for 44 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 24, 2012, 11:34 PM CST (05:34 UTC)
Expired
Jan 25, 2012, 12:30 AM CST
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 44 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bee County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Maverick County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Webb County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-01-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1865 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-01-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 146 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1865 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
594 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.8
Supercell composite
9.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

883 
ACUS11 KWNS 250534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250534 
TXZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.

PRIMARILY A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING
LINEAR MCS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF WW 13 OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS S-CNTRL TX NEAR
LRD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND WOULD POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HAIL/TORNADO RISK.

WELL-ADVERTISED LINEAR MCS INVOF EDWARDS/KINNEY COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND E/NEWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY
WITHIN A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CENTERED OVER FAR W TX. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THIS
CLUSTER HAS REMAINED LARGELY POST-FRONTAL THUS FAR...PRIMARILY
POSING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE BROADER WARM
SECTOR...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE...YIELDING A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FARTHER SE TOWARDS
LRD...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE UNDERWAY.
GIVEN A MUCH BROADER WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG WITH STRONG SLYS AOA 30
KT ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THIS SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30040044 30320025 30889925 31039840 30879710 30569673
            30289667 29929646 29339663 28239720 27999753 27719823
            27629847 27629901 27669934 27829968 28380039 29120073
            30040044

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 24, 7:13 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 23 more92 min
Jan 24, 10:05 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Blanco and 33 more5 hr
Jan 25, 2:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 56 more2 hr
Jan 25, 3:17 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Aransas, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bee and 67 more11 hr
Jan 25, 7:13 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Angelina, Aransas, Austin, Bee, Brazoria and 40 more2 hr
Jan 25, 7:56 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Cherokee, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Nacogdoches and 8 more7 hr
Jan 25, 10:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, Matagorda and 5 more96 min
Jan 25, 11:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper and 10 more2 hr
Jan 25, 2:08 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCJefferson, Orange7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.