Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 64
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 24, 2012, 7:13 PM CST for 29 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 24, 2012, 7:13 PM CST (01:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2012, 8:45 PM CST
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 619 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 573 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 253 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
475
ACUS11 KWNS 250114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250113
TXZ000-250245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250113Z - 250245Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL INCREASE AS TSTM COVERAGE GROWS LATER THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TYPE OF WW...THE PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 60 PERCENT.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/BIG BEND...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT AND
LRD. PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH A RELATIVELY RICH WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH
OF S-CNTRL TX. FARTHER NW...MORE MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
EXISTS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800 MB IN THE
00Z DRT RAOB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE GRADUALLY REMOVED AS
BAND OF FORCED ASCENT /NOW CROSSING THE BIG BEND/ OVERSPREADS THE
MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MAY PERSIST
BETWEEN 800-700 MB...VEERING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST TSTMS WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER
MODE WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE NE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29730142 30260125 30810077 30960033 31049970 30999913
30719865 30639781 30529732 30279702 29789710 29389761
28699862 28439939 28380027 29250085 29730142SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 10:05 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Blanco and 33 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 24, 11:34 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Blanco and 38 more | 56 min |
| Jan 25, 2:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bell and 56 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 25, 3:17 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Aransas, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bee and 67 more | 11 hr |
| Jan 25, 7:13 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Aransas, Austin, Bee, Brazoria and 40 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 25, 7:56 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Cherokee, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Nacogdoches and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Jan 25, 10:09 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, Matagorda and 5 more | 96 min |
| Jan 25, 11:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 25, 2:08 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Jefferson, Orange | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.