Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 603
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 27, 2012, 10:15 AM CDT for 27 counties in Kansas; Grant County, Kay County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 27, 2012, 10:15 AM CDT (15:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 27, 2012, 12:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1445 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -17 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 487 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 284 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 333 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 2.2
- Supercell composite
- 9.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
149
ACUS11 KWNS 271515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271515
OKZ000-KSZ000-271715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...FAR N-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271515Z - 271715Z
SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG EWD SURGING DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS TO
PERHAPS N-CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 95
PERCENT.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SE GLD WITH A
SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND A SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS
OCCURRING IN NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND CLOUD BREAKS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM COMANCHE TO PAWNEE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z
DDC RAOB AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH MODEST
HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL
INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE COMMENCED WEAKENING WITH SRN EXTENT IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR /PER TIME SERIES OF HAVILAND KS
PROFILER/...0-1 KM SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KT WITH STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELEGATED ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2500
J/KG IN S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN
CNTRL KS.
..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39169987 39399982 39589935 39659873 39489790 38899712
38099678 36939674 36729711 36659744 36759810 36989874
37689902 38369933 39059982 39169987SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 9:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Logan and 7 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 26, 10:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Logan and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 27, 2:24 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 27, 4:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Grant, Greeley, Hamilton, Haskell, Kearny and 8 more | 32 min |
| Apr 27, 6:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 22 more | 59 min |
| Apr 27, 1:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 34 more | 91 min |
| Apr 27, 2:11 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 46 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 27, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay and 22 more | 61 min |
| Apr 27, 6:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Cherokee and 32 more | 113 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.