Mesoscale Discussion 2237

Issued

Dec 26, 2012, 2:20 PM EST (19:20 UTC)

Expired

Dec 26, 2012, 3:45 PM EST

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

595 
ACUS11 KWNS 261921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261920
NCZ000-SCZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR ERN NC AND SRN/ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 699...

VALID 261920Z - 262045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 699 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
CONTAINED TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF ERN NC AS OFFSHORE SUPERCELLS TRACK
NNEWD REACHING AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF ILM THROUGH 22Z.  FARTHER
INLAND...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SAMPSON TO WILSON COUNTIES...AND AS IT
TRACKS NNE/NE TOWARD FAR NERN NC/FAR SERN VA BY 2030-21Z.  A NEW WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE NNE OF WW 699...DUE TO SPATIOTEMPORAL
LIMITATIONS AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THREAT.

DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAD CONTINUED TO MOVE NEWD SINCE THIS MORNING AND WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN NC /NEAR POPE AFB/.  THE WARM FRONT
MOVED INLAND AS FORECAST AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED EWD FROM THE LOW TO
15 S KGSB...AND THEN ENEWD THROUGH NERN NC TO THE S OF KECG.  THE
WARM SECTOR WAS DEMARCATED ON THE W BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED
SWD THROUGH FAR ERN SC.  HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS LIMITED THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION TO
OFFSHORE AND COASTAL AREAS OF NC TO FAR ERN SC.  IN THESE LATTER
AREAS...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW ROTATING LOW
LEVEL COUPLETS OFFSHORE.  AS THESE STORMS TRACK NNEWD WITHIN LEADING
CONFLUENT ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-350 M2/S2...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

MEANWHILE...A NNE-SSW LINE OF STORMS LOCATED FARTHER INLAND FROM
EDGECOMBE TO SAMPSON COUNTIES NC.  THIS ACTIVITY...DESPITE MEAGER
INSTABILITY...IS LIKELY BEING MAINTAINED BY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT/DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED.  THE NRN EXTENT
OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH FAR NERN NC/FAR SERN VA BETWEEN
2030-21Z.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY NNEWD/NEWD.  IF THE WARM FRONT WERE TO
REACH THIS AREA PRIOR TO 2030Z...THEN A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT COULD
NOT BE RULED OUT.

..PETERS.. 12/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   32837896 33247946 35057858 35607850 35747826 36087758
            35947688 36337552 35927523 35287510 34937518 34097647
            34047717 33537772 33127860 32837896

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.