Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 2229

December 26, 2012Brunswick County, Columbus County, New Hanover County, North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 26, 2012, 6:20 AM EST for Brunswick County, Columbus County, New Hanover County, North Carolina; 5 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 26, 2012, 6:20 AM EST (11:20 UTC)
Expired
Dec 26, 2012, 7:45 AM EST
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Berkeley County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2012-12-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 44 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2012-12-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 237 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
44 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
560 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
237 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
387 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

232 
ACUS11 KWNS 261121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261120
NCZ000-SCZ000-261245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NERN SC AND EXTREME SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261120Z - 261245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS OFFSHORE S OF THE SRN NC COAST WERE SHOWING
OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION/TRANSIENT ROTATION WHILE MOVING NWD
WITHIN A WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THESE TSTMS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION
WHILE APCHG THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC/SC COASTS WERE
MOVG NWD AND INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST
SOUTH OF ILM TO NEAR MYR AND OGB. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM-FRONTAL ZONE IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOCAL INCREASE
IN 0-1 KM SRH TO OVER 500 M2/S2 AS SAMPLED BY THE KILM AND KLTX
VWPS.  TSTMS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAVE SHOWN OCCASIONAL
SIGNS OF ROTATION AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THESE STORMS APCH THE COAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO AROUND 100 J/KG
INLAND. AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL
ROTATION WHILE APCHG THE COAST BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NWD MOVEMENT
ONSHORE. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NWD...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY INCREASE FARTHER
INLAND. WHILE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   32248001 32998021 33797962 34237892 34537761 34487742
            34117733 33537789 32787901 32248001

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 8:07 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus and 24 more83 min
Dec 26, 10:08 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 23 more6 hr
Dec 26, 2:20 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 19 more85 min
Dec 26, 6:11 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 12 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.