Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 2231
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 26, 2012, 8:07 AM EST for 30 counties in North Carolina; 22 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2012, 8:07 AM EST (13:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 26, 2012, 9:30 AM EST
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 52 counties
Anson County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Bamberg County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 438 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 540 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 770 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
331
ACUS11 KWNS 261308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261307
NCZ000-SCZ000-261430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SC...SRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261307Z - 261430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY 16Z IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. A WW MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z.
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST S OF MRH INLAND NEAR
MYR AND TO A DEVELOPING SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN GA.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD IN TANDEM
WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...RESULTING IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED ATM OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AND SRN NC. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE RESULTED
IN 0-1 KM SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/BOWING SEGMENTS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH A RISK OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW PRIOR TO 16Z.
..BUNTING/MEAD.. 12/26/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 33048115 33738126 35288066 35587931 35547650 35397569
35187563 34367640 34287697 34007758 33537821 32297987
32268057 33048115SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 6:20 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover | 85 min |
| Dec 26, 10:08 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 23 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 26, 2:20 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 19 more | 85 min |
| Dec 26, 6:11 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 12 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.