Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 207
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 2, 2012, 10:28 AM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 2, 2012, 10:28 AM CST (16:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 2, 2012, 11:30 AM CST
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 31 counties
Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, DeSoto County, MS, Tate County, MS, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1625 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -13 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 645 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 63 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 291 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 304 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 3.2
- Supercell composite
- 11.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
911
ACUS11 KWNS 021629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021628
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...FAR WRN TN...FAR NWRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021628Z - 021730Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NERN AR
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
16Z SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM 30 SE
UNO TO 20 E HOT...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING NWRN AR...WITH
A LINE OF TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE EWD MOVING DRYLINE. GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER IMPULSE /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN KS/NERN
OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE N...ALONG
WITH AMPLE DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SUPPORT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO PRESENT
AS A MIDLEVEL JET IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN AR/SRN MO...FAVORABLE
FOR ROTATING STORMS. TSTM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AS THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED N OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ALL SVR
MODES...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS INCREASE.
..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35728861 34638979 34829203 35539186 36379113 36529082
36548951 36478896 35728861SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 1:26 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 64 min |
| Mar 2, 1:47 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 9 hr |
| Mar 2, 3:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 58 min |
| Mar 2, 12:57 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 32 more | 63 min |
| Mar 2, 1:20 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 24 more | 9 hr |
| Mar 2, 2:42 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Amite, Clarke, Copiah, Covington, Forrest, Franklin and 26 more | 63 min |
| Mar 2, 3:25 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 24 more | 65 min |
| Mar 2, 4:37 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | George, Greene, Perry, Stone, Wayne | 7 hr |
| Mar 2, 4:47 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Attala, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay, Copiah, Covington and 23 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 2, 1:46 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bollinger, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Cedar and 37 more | 89 min |
| Mar 2, 2:07 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Audrain, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Callaway and 46 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 2, 4:25 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis | 95 min |
| Mar 2, 5:52 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Callaway, Camden, Cole, Crawford, Dallas, Dent and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 2, 9:22 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott | 113 min |
| Mar 2, 9:54 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Iron, Jefferson and 12 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 2, 11:06 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Knox, Lewis, Schuyler, Scotland, Shelby | 4 hr |
| Mar 2, 2:30 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradley, McMinn, Monroe, Polk | 90 min |
| Mar 2, 3:40 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Fentress, Overton, Pickett, Scott | 65 min |
| Mar 2, 9:07 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Bledsoe, Bradley, Cannon, Coffee, Cumberland and 28 more | 53 min |
| Mar 2, 9:25 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell and 46 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 2, 11:46 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne and 35 more | 29 min |
| Mar 2, 12:05 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett, Davidson and 28 more | 85 min |
| Mar 2, 1:58 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke and 21 more | 62 min |
| Mar 2, 2:19 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter and 27 more | 8 hr |
| Mar 2, 2:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Macon, Pickett, Sumner | 85 min |
| Mar 2, 5:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradley, Polk | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.